CHINA-19TH PARTY CONGRESS: NEXT GENERATION PARTY LEADERS: ASSESSMENT BY CHENG LI

China analyst Cheng Li recently wrote that as of August 2017, an impressive 298 of the 369 members of China’s 31 province-level party standing committees were born in the 1960s, or 80.7% of the total. By contrast, in August 2015, only 40% (158 out of 395) of these standing committee members had been born in the 1960s. In other words, the proportion of sixth-generation representation in this important leadership group has doubled in only two years. 

17 provincial chiefs, including three provincial party secretaries and 14 governors or mayors, belong to the sixth generation of leaders. These include Guangdong Party Secretary Hu Chunhua (born in 1963), Chongqing Party Secretary Chen Min’er 陈敏儿 (b. 1960), Heilongjiang Party Secretary Zhang Qingwei 张庆伟 (b. 1961), Beijing Mayor Chen Jining 陈吉宁 (b. 1964), Chongqing Mayor Zhang Guoqing 张国清 (b. 1964), Hebei Governor Xu Qin 许勤 (b. 1961), Zhejiang Governor Yuan Jiajun 袁家军 (b. 1962), Jiangsu Governor Wu Zhenglong 吴政隆 (b. 1964), Shandong Governor Gong Zheng 龚正 (b. 1960), Sichuan Governor Yin Li 尹力 (b. 1962), and Shaanxi Governor Hu Heping 胡和平 (b. 1962). Chen Min’er, Zhang Qingwei, Chen Jining, Zhang Guoqing, Xu Qin, Yuan Jiajun, Wu Zhenglong, and Gong Zheng were all appointed to their positions in 2017. He identified Jiangsu Party Secretary Li Qiang 李强 (b. 1959) and Guangdong Governor Ma Xingrui as leading candidates to succeed Xi Jinping, Li Keqiang, and other top leaders in the foreseeable future.

In the State Council those identified as the four newly appointed or soon-to-be confirmed ministers who were born in the 1960s are: Housing and Urban-Rural Development Minister Wang Menghui 王蒙徽 (b. 1960), Environmental Protection Minister Li Ganjie 李干杰 (b. 1964), State Security Minister Chen Wenqing 陈文清 (b. 1960), and Land and Natural Resources Minister Sun Shaocheng 孙绍骋 (b. 1960). As of August 2017, 86 of the 131 Vice Ministers and Assistant Ministers in China’s 26 ministries are sixth-generation leaders. 

Some sixth-generation leaders recently promoted to top positions in the central bodies of the party and government include: Deputy Secretary of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (CCDI) Li Shulei (李书磊 -- b. 1964); Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission Liu Shiyu (刘士余 - b. 1961); Director of the Cyberspace Administration of China Xu Lin (徐麟 - b. 1963); Deputy Secretary of the Work Committee for Departments Directly Under the CCP Central Committee Meng Xiangfeng (孟祥锋 - b. 1964); Director of the Central Rural Work Leading Group Office of the CCP Central Committee Han Jun (韩俊 - b. 1963); and Deputy Director of the Central Organization Department of the CCP Central Committee Qi Yu (齐玉 - b. 1961). None of them are full or alternate members of the current Central Committee, but they are all assessed as likely to join the Central Committee as first-time members at the upcoming 19th Party Congress.  Deputy Director of the General Office of the CCP Central Committee Ding Xuexiang (丁薛祥 - b. 1962), currently an alternate member of the CCP Central Committee, and Li Shulei, currently a CCDI member, are also candidates for the new Politburo and new Secretariat.








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