CHINA-FOREIGN POLICY: US, INDIA AND NORTH KOREA

Jin Canrong, Professor and Associate Dean with School of International Studies at Renmin University of China and an influential Chinese commentator on China-US relations, on March 12, 2018 wrote that  China should be aware of challenges while advancing its diplomatic agenda and advised that China needs new metrics to evaluate diplomatic risks and needs caution and increased emphasis on regional security. He highlighted opposition from the US-led western bloc, the North Korean nuclear threat, tense Indian relations and the Taiwan issue, suggesting that China must stabilise its relations with big power countries and its neighbours.Briefly, Jin Canrong recommended the following:

The North Korea nuclear issue will be resolved this year through talks with the US, and China must safeguard its interests throughout this process. The US and North Korea can resolve these issues through
military means
China would face nuclear radiation and a refugee crisis
negotiations
an acceptable outcome: North Korea retains intermediate-range ballistic missile capability, allows for US monitoring and promises non-proliferation in exchange for US acknowledgement of North Korea as a nuclear state
The US seeks assistance from India, Vietnam and Indonesia after reaffirming its alliance with Australia and Japan. China should not be concerned by Indonesia and Vietnam, because

Indonesia is wary of South China Sea involvement
Vietnam seeks to maximise its interests by balancing its relations with China and the US
India could interfere with China’s strategic priorities, argues Jin, given existing territorial disputes and the possibility of India joining the Quadrilateral Security Alliance of the US, Japan, Australia and India. India is not China’s top strategic priority, but its increasing role disrupts China’s strategic focus on Taiwan. Jin Canrong highlights India's

unrealistic confidence in its economic power
growing strategic influence
through military modernisation with aid from the US and its allies
Modi’s consolidated political power and increased international diplomatic maneuvering
dissatisfaction with China
concern about China’s growing influence in South Asia
China blocked India from becoming a permanent member of the UNSC
India initiated naval exercises simulating blocking access to the Indian Ocean
70 percent of China’s trade travels through the Indian Ocean
Jin Canrong suggested the Taiwan issue could become dangerous and highlighted

the US, Japan and India’s intent to mobilise the Taiwan issue
Trump will sign the Taiwan Travel Act, allowing Tsai Ing-Wen to visit the US
US naval vessels could visit Taiwan under the National Defense Authorisation Act
Jin Canrong concluded with the assertion that China is committed to resolving the Taiwan issue and should adopt a stick-and-carrot approach, but efficacy largely depends on Taiwan’s political wisdom.






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