CHINA-ECONOMY: COMPARISON WITH U.S. WEALTH

 Derek Scissors wrote on November 29, 2016, that new estimates by Credit Suisse of private wealth through the middle of 2016, show American private wealth at $84.8 trillion and Chinese private wealth at $23.4 trillion and the gap is widening. There is also a huge margin of error of approx. over $1 trillion in estimating China's private wealth. Credit Suisse shows US private wealth adding $1.7 trillion over the previous year, expanding its enormous lead over China. America’s share held at nearly one-third of the global total. At the end of 2000, the PRC’s private wealth was only $4.6 trillion and its share was 4 percent. The US numbers were $42.3 trillion and 36.2 percent. The PRC has narrowed the gap significantly since then. The Chinese Communist Party suppresses reports of the PRC’s debt problems. The United States does an uneven job of evaluating public-sector assets. Using Federal Reserve data, U.S. net national wealth was $81.1 trillion in the middle of 2016. The Fed’s figure, however, is based on higher U.S. private wealth than Credit Suisse finds and the Fed may overstate the value of nonfinancial assets versus financial debts. Trying to correct for these issues generates a U.S. net wealth figure of $74.3 trillion to compare to China.He said while calculating China's debt independent estimates typically measure national debt rather than public. Formal central and local government debt of over $4 trillion is minor and receives far too much attention. There’s more than twice as much debt held by state-owned enterprises, and perhaps much more in addition that is going unreported. China’s net wealth figure is therefore harder to figure than that of the United States. The number is above $27 trillion, with $27.4 trillion the best guess. In the middle of 2016, the wealth gap between the United States and China was close to $47 trillion.


Derek Scissors argues that GDP per capita has no meaning -- it cannot be spent or saved. The Chinese government itself puts 2015 disposable income at an average of $3,400. The equivalent U.S. figure was $42,600. He concludes that a China that re-embraces market-driven reform can return to the 2000’s and again creep up on the United States in economic size (faster, if the United States does not address its own problems). But for now, and for many years to come, the idea that China can be the leading global economy is off by tens of trillions of dollars.






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