ISSUE/POLICY BRIEFS & REPORTS
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CHINA’S DETERIORATING ECONOMY HAS CREATED INSTABILITY FOR XI JINPING China’s economy is in dire straits. While assessments of China’s economic situation by foreign banks and economists is worrying, the views of some Chinese economists are even more pessimistic. They question the Chinese government’s projected economic growth rate of 5 per cent and say that growth is really negative and nearer minus 2-3 percent! Close scrutiny of China’s official media too reveals a worrying picture with little prospect of an economic recovery in the near term. Chinese President Xi Jinping, who has focussed on dissemination of Xi Jinping’s Thoughts through his books, has been slow in addressing the economy.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE Sep 2023 (This Issue Brief was first published by Vivekananda International foundation (VIF)) |
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FORMER CHINESE FOREIGN MINISTER QIN GANG’S ABSENCE POINTS TO DISCORD IN SENIOR ECHELONS OF THE CCP The decision taken by stern faced members of China’s National People's Congress Standing Committee (NPCSC) at an emergency meeting on July 25 to replace Qin Gang as Foreign Minister with his predecessor Wang Yi was very unusual. The NPCSC did not, however, divest him of his rank as State Councilor though it is empowered to do so. The NPCSC resolution also pointedly stated that Xi Jinping had signed-off on the decision to replace him as Foreign Minister. The NPCSC decision was, incidentally, taken when Wang Yi was attending a BRICS conference in South Africa. Regardless of whether it is finally revealed that Qin Gang is seriously unwell or resurfaces, the recent developments point to the political situation in China not being all that stable as some analysts maintain.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE July 2023 (This Issue Brief was first published by Vivekananda International foundation (VIF)) |
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XI JINPING’S LATEST CAMPAIGN : ‘THEME EDUCATION’ Within months of securing a third term at the 20th Party Congress last October and successfully packing the Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) with loyalists, Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Central Committee (CC) General Secretary Xi Jinping launched a new political education campaign – his sixth -- on April 3, 2023. It is the largest, most vigorous and intense ideological campaign since Xi Jinping took office in October 2012 and has penetrated the CCP, People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and Government. This new “themed education” programme aims at embedding ‘Xi Jinping Thought’ into the minds of CCP members and cadres all the way from the central cadres in Beijing down to the country’s more than 2,800 county-level areas. It is a long term move intended to ready successive generations of communists to lead China.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE June 2023 (This Issue Brief was first published by Vivekananda International foundation (VIF)) |
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ASSESSMENT OF US SECRETARY OF STATE BLINKEN’S TWO-DAY VISIT TO CHINA The Western media, in sharp contrast to China’s tightly controlled official media, seems to have gushed at the apparent success of US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken's visit to China on June 18-19. China’s official media, in contrast, afforded low-key coverage to the visit, which they pointed out had been sought by the US. Successive articles in China’s official media have cautioned that the US was advertising a so-called desire to improve ties when in reality it wanted to contain China. The special, warm welcome accorded to Indian Prime Minister Modi and the speeches during his recent visit to the US will have reinforced Chinese suspicions. A closer look at the official accounts of Blinken’s meetings in China reveal the differences in the content and tone of the respective statements issued after the meetings, suggesting that the outcome of this and similar future contacts are likely to be at variance with popular expectations.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE June 2023 (This Issue Brief was first published by Vivekananda International foundation (VIF)) |
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INDICATIONS OF ELEVATED MILITARY PREPARATIONS IN TIBET Monitoring developments in the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR) has become even more important after India's 4057-kms Line of Actual Control (LAC) with China became active along its entire length since at least July 2021, when the clash at Galwan Valley resulted in the deaths of Indian soldiers. Activities of the TAR authorities increase noticeably as they sensitise their population while preparing for any initiative or periods of tension, whether military or otherwise. Over at least the past month the higher TAR authorities have been noticed paying unusually increased attention to the border prefectures and counties.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE May 2023 (This Issue Brief was first published by Vivekananda International foundation (VIF)) |
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CHINESE FOREIGN MINISTER HIGHLIGHTS MAIN FEATURES OF CHINA’S FOREIGN POLICY The latest (May 16) issue of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)’s leading theoretical
fortnightly magazine ‘Qiu Shi’ (Seeking Truth) included a lengthy article by Chinese State
Councillor and Foreign Minister Qin Gang. In it Qin Gang quite explicitly, but without naming,
criticised the US and West and outlined China’s global foreign policy agenda. Qin Gang is a
close associate and protégé of Chinese President Xi Jinping and for years was in charge of
managing Xi’s foreign policy schedule. Just 57 years old, Qin Gang’s rise has been rapid and
he is well positioned to make it to the Politburo at the next Party Congress in 2027.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE May 2023 (This Issue Brief was first published by Vivekananda International foundation (VIF)) |
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RISING TENSIONS IN THE TAIWAN STRAIT As January 2024 -- the date for Taiwan's national elections -- draws closer, it is certain that
China will be a factor in the elections. Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen's stop-overs in New York
and Los Angeles and meeting with US House Majority Leader McCarthy on April 5 amid
steadily escalating Cross Strait tensions has also provoked "robust counter-measures" by
China.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE April 2023 |
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CHINA'S NEW LEADERSHIP IS PREPARING FOR A MILITARY THREAT Amid the flurry of documents submitted and appointments confirmed at the recent plenary sessions of the National People's Congress (NPC) -- China’s version of a parliament -- and the Chinese People's Consultative Conference (CPPCC) -- China’s top political advisory body -- there are indications that China’s leadership is rather anxious at the adverse and deteriorating international environment that China faces. The failure of US Secretary of State Blinken to travel to China because of the Chinese spy balloon episode revealed not only the poor state of Sino-US relations but the deep suspicion of China in the US political establishment and Administration. While the recent NPC and CPPCC plenary sessions have given economic development unmistakable priority in a bid to reduce – if not eliminate – dependence on the US, national security has been given equal importance.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE Mar 2023 (This Issue Brief was first published by Vivekananda International foundation (VIF)) |
Mr. Jayadeva Ranade, President, CCAS along with Dr. Abhishek Darbey, Research Fellow, CCAS presented the Directory of the People's Liberation Army, Western Theatre Command (May 2023) to Air Chief Marshal VR Chaudhari PVSM AVSM VM ADC on 22 June, 2023 
Bio-profiles of the 24 members of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)'s apex body, the 20th Politburo, prepared by the Centre for China Analysis and Strategy (CCAS) 
Bios of The People's Liberation Army (PLA)'s Representation in the 20th Central Committee (CC) of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) 
Mr Jayadeva Ranade's address at the Army Commanders Conference, December 10,2022 
Mr Jayadeva Ranade, President, Centre for China Analysis and Strategy #CCAS called on General Manoj Pande #COAS and discussed contemporary geopolitical and national security issues.  
Centre for China Analysis and Strategy proudly continues to make meaningful contributions towards 'Understanding #China' and has produced a comprehensive directory of the People's Liberation Army, Western Theatre Command (updated till May 2023). EVENTSThe Chief of Army Staff, General Manoj Pande, PVSM AVSM VSM ADC delivered the keynote address at the inaugural session of the two-day strategic dialogue in Pune on the subject 'Rise of China and Its Implications for the World' organised by the Centre for China Analysis and Strategy and the Department of Defence and Strategic Studies (DDSS) of the Savitribai Phule Pune University (SPPU). 
2nd STRATEGIC DIALOGUE ON RISE OF CHINA AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE WORLD: SESSION II - INAUGURAL, Jayadeva Ranade, President, CCAS, DDSS SPPU, Mar 28, 2023 
2nd STRATEGIC DIALOGUE ON RISE OF CHINA AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE WORLD : SESSION I - INAUGURAL, Jayadeva Ranade, President, CCAS, DDSS SPPU, Mar 27, 2023 Rise of China and Implications for the World co-hosted with Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung India, Department of Defence and Strategic Studies, Pune University and Centre for Advanced Strategic Studies from 10-12 April 2022 in Pune 
Seminar organised by the Centre for China Analysis and Strategy (CCAS) and Centre for Advanced Strategic Studies (CASS) on 'India-China Relations in the Twenty First Century : Challenges and Opportunities' held on 03rd March 2020. The event was supported by ICWA and also by Maharashtra Education Society, Pune on 3 March 2020. 
Seminar organized by Centre for China Analysis and Strategy & Delhi Journalists Association titled 'Understanding China's Rise' held at IIC on 28 February 2020. |
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CCAS EXPERTS IN MEDIAChinese President Xi Jinping Cancels Visits Abroad Because Of Political Instability At Home, Jayadeva Ranade, President, CCAS, Strategic News Global, Sep 3, 2023 Is Xi Jinping Destroying China | Can the CCP Save Itself , Jayadeva Ranade, President, CCAS, Tribune India, Aug 14, 2023 Qin Gang case points to political discord in China, Jayadeva Ranade, President, CCAS, Tribune India, Aug 05, 2023 A Shanghai Contradiction Organisation – Let’s call it what it is, Namrata Hasija, Research Fellow, CCAS, Moneycontrol, Jul 06, 2023 The India-China Equation:Challenges and the Way Forward|Ep38|Nation-State Dialogue|民族国家对话|राष्ट्र..., Jayadeva Ranade, President, CCAS, Tribune India, Jul 05, 2023 Blinken’s China visit offers little hope of easing strained ties, Jayadeva Ranade, President, CCAS, Tribune India, Jun 28, 2023 Galwan: China’s cultural, admin footprint in border areas growing, Jayadeva Ranade, President, CCAS, Times of India, Jun 24, 2023 China as a model for path to modernisation, Jayadeva Ranade, President, CCAS, Tribune India, Jun 07, 2023 Xi's new slogans to concretise his leadership, Jayadeva Ranade, President, CCAS, Tribune India, May 04, 2023 Any Chinese Overture Should Be Seen As A Tactical Move, Jayadeva Ranade, President, CCAS, Strategic News Global, Apr 21, 2023 Growing Taiwan-US relations rile Beijing, Jayadeva Ranade, President, CCAS, Tribune India, Apr 12, 2023 Xi’s Moscow Visit: A weakened Russia in China’s orbit narrows India’s geopolitical options in Asia, Namrata Hasija, Research Fellow, CCAS, Moneycontrol, Mar 24, 2023 China May Be Loud Against Groupings Threatening Its Reach, But Hasn't Proposed De-Escalation Either, Namrata Hasija, Research Fellow, CCAS, The Wire, Mar 23, 2023 Xi firmly at the helm amid China’s tough times, Jayadeva Ranade, President, CCAS, Tribune India, Mar 21, 2023 China’s Increased Attention to Tibet’s Borders With India, Apa Lhamo, Research Fellow, CCAS, The Diplomat, Mar 04, 2023 Kashmir issue needs no foreign intervention, Jayadeva Ranade, President, CCAS, Tribune India, Feb 25, 2023 Despite dissatisfaction, Xi consolidates power, Jayadeva Ranade, President, CCAS, Tribune India, Feb 7, 2023 Strategic Challenges India in 2030 in conversation with Bhuvan Lall | IBLF 2023 - Gurugram Chapter, Jayadeva Ranade, President, CCAS, Business world, Jan 23, 2023 The great wall of Chinese antagonism | Jayadeva Ranade on security in India@2023, Jayadeva Ranade, President, CCAS, India Today, Jan 14, 2023 India needs to double down on its China policy, Jayadeva Ranade, President, CCAS, Tribune India, Jan 7, 2023 All's not well in China, Jayadeva Ranade, President, CCAS, Tribune India, Dec 20, 2022 Unrest in China goes beyond Covid protests, Jayadeva Ranade, President, CCAS, Tribune India, Dec 03, 2022 Xi Not Comfortable Taking On U.S., Will Be Aggressive Towards India, Taiwan, Jayadeva Ranade, President, CCAS, Strategic News Global, Nov 14, 2022 Which way China will go, Jayadeva Ranade, President, CCAS, Tribune India, Oct 18, 2022 Xi Jinping and the portends for his third term, Jayadeva Ranade, President, CCAS, News9live, Oct 15, 2022 Xi Jinping is NOT under house arrest - likely to win 3rd term: Indian experts, Namrata Hasija, Research Associate, CCAS, Citti Media, Oct 14, 2022 Sense Of Inevitability As China Party Congress Begins, Jayadeva Ranade, President, CCAS, Strategic News Global, Oct 11, 2022 Are Xi's Policies Disastrous For China?, Jayadeva Ranade, President, CCAS, Rediff News, Sep 21, 2022 Xi strengthens Western Theatre Command, Jayadeva Ranade, President, CCAS, Tribune India, Sep 19, 2022 Another Round Of Disengagement At LAC: Why Now & What Next?, Jayadeva Ranade, President, CCAS, Strat News Global, Sep 13, 2022 China steps up bid to woo Nepal’s Buddhists, Jayadeva Ranade, President, CCAS, Tribune India, Sep 7, 2022 Tough Road Ahead For Xi Jinping, Jayadeva Ranade, President, CCAS, Rediff News, Aug 26, 2022 Xi pulls out all stops to seek another term, Jayadeva Ranade, President, CCAS, Tribune India, Aug 20, 2022 PRC a divided on military reunification of Taiwan, Namrata Hasija, Research Associate, CCAS, Sunday Guardian, Aug 7, 2022 In dire straits: How Taiwan’s fate is closely linked with China’s internal political churn, Namrata Hasija, Research Associate, CCAS, Firstpost, Aug 6, 2022 China wary of Indian influence in Nepal, Jayadeva Ranade, President, CCAS, Tribune India, Aug 2, 2022 Uplift border villages with holistic approach, Jayadeva Ranade, President, CCAS, Tribune India, Jul 18, 2022 Shyam Saran's book 'How China Sees India and the World' traces interaction between the two countries, Jayadeva Ranade, President, CCAS, Tribune India, Jul 10, 2022 Lessons from China’s war-preparedness drill, Jayadeva Ranade, President, CCAS, Tribune India, Jul 1, 2022 BRICS Summit: Common Ground, Conflict & Change, Jayadeva Ranade, President, CCAS, Strategic News Global Lessons From Leaked Video of Chinese War Preparedness Exercise, Jayadeva Ranade, President, CCAS, Strategic News Global, Jun 14, 2022 |
