ISSUE/POLICY BRIEFS & REPORTS

CHINA’S COMMUNIST PARTY REVISES ITS HISTORY YET AGAIN IN TIME FOR USE BY XI JINPING
History and the power of the narrative have always been important to authoritarian regimes. Communist regimes have elevated their importance by using them to indoctrinate entire generations with sanitised versions of events authorised by those in power. Under Chinese President Xi Jinping the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has further refined the impact of the narrative by using propaganda and technology to keep the media and social media in check. Since the last few years, China’s security apparatus has also been co-opted to try and prevent western ‘liberal thinking’ from infiltrating and swaying China’s students, academics and intellectuals.

Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Apr 2021
(It was first issued by the Vivekananda International Foundation (VIF) on April 29, 2021)
WILL CHINA’S AMBITIONS WITH IRAN MATERIALISE?
Given the rising US-China tensions, Beijing and Washington are both trying to consolidate their relationship with other important countries. China receiving Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov just prior to Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi embarking on a tour to the Middle East exemplifies this. The efforts have gained momentum after the meeting between Chinese Politburo member Yang Jiechi and Foreign Minister Wang Yi and US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan at Anchorage, Alaska, earlier this year.

Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Apr 2021
(It was first published by the Centre for Air Power Studies (CAPS), New Delhi.)
CHINA-PAKISTAN STRATEGIC NEXUS: IMPLICATIONS FOR INDIA
The growing China-Pakistan nexus raises the threat to India. Their strategic and territorial interests have been cemented by the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). With the flow of Chinese military power into Pakistan, China veritably straddles India, with its armed forces present on the our northern, eastern and western borders. This not only raises the real spectre of a ‘two-front’ war, but positions China to play a role in Kashmir and the region. Both countries must therefore be viewed as potential threats.

Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Apr 2021
(The Issue Brief was first issued by the Vivekananda International Foundation)
TIBET GOVERNMENT CHAIRMAN PROJECTS THAT TIBET IS HEADED FOR MAJOR CHANGES
The People's Daily on March 25, 2021, published a lengthy 3975-character article authored by Che Dalha (in Chinese: Qi Zala), Chairman of the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR). Che Dalha’s important article, which included nine mentions of Xi Jinping, predictably focuses on activities in Tibet, but makes explicitly clear that the Tibetans are headed for a difficult period.

Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Mar 2021
(The Issue Brief was first issued by the Vivekananda International Foundation)
CHINA HAS JUST RAISED THE LEVEL OF THREAT FOR INDIA
Capitals around the world have undoubtedly carefully monitored the recently concluded plenary sessions (March 4 - 11, 2021) of China’s National People’s Congress (NPC) and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), popularly referred to as the ‘Lianghui’, or ‘Big Two’. For India, among the documents approved by the NPC Plenary session, one merits especially close attention.

Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Mar 2021
(The Issue Brief was first posted by the Vivekananda International Foundation on March 31, 2021)
HIGHLIGHTS OF CHINESE PREMIER LI KEQIANG'S GOVERNMENT WORK REPORT PRESENTED TO NPC AND CPPCC DEPUTIES ON MARCH 5, 2021
Chinese Premier Li Keqiang presented a 36-page Report on the Work of the Government to the NPC session on March 5, 2021. Delegates to the CPPCC, among others, attended the session and will discuss the Report but not vote on it. The Government Work Report, the draft of which had been discussed and approved at the Politburo meeting chaired by Chinese President Xi Jinping, contained 13 references to Xi Jinping.

Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Mar 2021
QUICK GLIMPSE INTO CHINA'S UPCOMING ANNUAL 'BIG TWO' SESSIONS
With just a couple of weeks to go before China’s ‘Big Two’ -- the popular name for the plenary sessions of China’s version of a parliament, the National People’s Congress (NPC) and the top political advisory body, the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) – there are no signs of any easing in the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)’s efforts to promote Chinese communist ideology. The deliberations at the NPC and CPPCC sessions will reveal China’s priorities for this year and the longer term. The Reports are expected to bear the unmistakable imprimatur of Xi Jinping.

Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Feb 2021
(This Issue Brief was first published by Vivekananda International Foundation)
CHINA IS REPLACING ETHNIC LANGUAGES WITH MANDARIN
Wary of efforts by the US and West to bring about the collapse of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), particularly as memories of the disintegration of the erstwhile Soviet Union and collapse of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union (CPSU) still remain sharply etched, Chinese President Xi Jinping has been focussed on strengthening the CCP to ensure it retains its monopoly on power. Xi Jinping has also long had an interest in united front work and ethnic minority issues and in 2017 took over as head of the powerful Central Leading Small Group on United Front Work, which exercises direct control over the formulation and implementation of policies for China’s ethnic minorities. Since then there has been a noticeable uptick in united front activity concerning the ethnic minorities.

Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Feb 2021
(This Issue Brief was first published by Vivekananda International Foundation)
CHINESE REACTIONS TO U.S. PRESIDENT TRUMP’S POLICIES ON TAIWAN
Recent US pronouncements regarding Taiwan have annoyed Beijing and the US’ plans to send its Ambassador to the UN, Ms. Kelly Craft, to Taiwan provoked a sharp response. Hers would have been the first trip at this level since 1968. Though Craft's visit, which was scheduled to start on January 13 was abruptly cancelled at the last minute, she did later have a virtual meeting with Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen.

Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Jan 2021
XI JINPING FURTHER STRENGTHENS CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY'S 'MAGIC WEAPON' - THE UNITED FRONT WORK DEPARTMENT
China is making efforts to arrest the slide in US-China relations and lower temperatures after Joe Biden takes over as President on January 20. In addition to Chinese Politburo member and former Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi’s plans for visiting Washington this week, a Chinese trade delegation is likely to travel to the US shortly. Confirming that China will use all the levers it possibly can, Chinese President Xi Jinping on January 6 wrote to Howard Schultz, Honorary Chairman of the Board of Directors of Starbucks Corporation of the United States, emphasising that China "will provide a broader space for companies from all over the world, including Starbucks and other American companies, to develop in China".

Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Jan 2021
(It was first published by Vivekanand India Foundation)
(It was first published by Vivekanand India Foundation)
AN AUTHORITATIVE CHINESE ASSESSMENT OF HOW CHINA VIEWS INDIA
Far from any signs of an end to the military stand-off between India and China, or that tensions between the two will ease, China’s mood towards India is hardening. There are indications that China sees the current confrontation as the beginning of a period of sustained, protracted pressure on India. The military confrontation in the Himalayas is likely to escalate, with a high possibility of clashes occurring periodically commencing from Spring this year. These could include sharp, swift military actions.

Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Dec 2020
(It was first published by Vivekanand India Foundation)
CHINA DEBATES POLICY TOWARDS U.S. AS BIDEN'S ADMINISTRATION TAKES OVER
China’s leadership echelons have been very apprehensive about anti-China actions the Trump Administration might take in its last days. Zhou Li, a former career diplomat who is presently senior researcher at the Chongyang Institute of Financial Research of Renmin University and Director of the China Russia Humanities Exchange Research Center, had in mid-2020 warned that China must prepare for the deterioration and “full escalation of the struggle” in Sino-US relations. He anticipated a string of punitive actions by the Trump Administration, adding that "decoupling" is ultimately inevitable and that the “difficulties and challenges China will face will be unprecedentedly complex and unprecedentedly severe”.

Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Dec 2020
(It was first published by Vivekanand India Foundation on 30 December 2020)
XI JINPING LAUNCHES CAMPAIGNS TO ENTRENCH THE CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY (CCP)AMONG THE PEOPLE
Chinese President Xi Jinping has been under considerable pressure since he began his second term at the 19th Party Congress in October 2017. The US-China trade war and the Covid-19 pandemic have considerably enhanced the pressure. The Trump Administration’s efforts to target the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) so that the ideological commitment of its members would waver will have especially disconcerted Xi Jinping. He has in recent months redoubled efforts to refresh the commitment of Party members to communist ideology and enlarged the scope of the campaigns to include students in an attempt to ensure the CCP’s monopoly on power in China over the longer term.

Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Dec 2020
CHINA'S INTERNAL SITUATION: IS XI JINPING UNDER PRESSURE
Social stability is a topmost concern for China’s leadership as they see it as essential for the perpetuation of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)’s monopoly on power. To achieve this they play, to an extent, on the fears of the Chinese people of dongluang, or upheaval/chaos.
Despite the efforts of the CCP leadership, especially under Xi Jinping, there is noticeable resentment and dissatisfaction. This has particularly marked his second term since the 19th Party Congress in November 2019. The trigger for the dissatisfaction was the abolition by Xi Jinping at the 19th Party Congress of the term limits on top posts as well as his ignoring the informally agreed upon age limits for elevation of cadres to top positions like the Politburo (PB) and Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC).

Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Dec 2020
CHINA'S THIRD CENTRAL XINJIANG WORK CONFERENCE
On the eve of the 65th anniversary of the establishment of the Xinjiang-Uyghur Autonomous Region (XUAR) and after an interval of six years, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) held its Third Central Xinjiang Work Symposium in Beijing on September 25-26, 2020. The conference was held in the midst of negative international media attention, which highlighted the instances of discrimination and reported incarceration of millions of Uyghurs in ‘re-education’ or ‘vocational’ centres constructed across the Autonomous Region.

Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Oct 2020
CHINESE PUBLICATION ASSERTS AKSAI CHIN IS "ILLEGALLY OCCUPIED BY INDIA"
A lengthy over 23,548-character (Chinese) article re-asserting China’s claim on Aksai Chin and Ladakh and authored by Zeng Hao, Associate Professor of the Law School of Hunan University as part of the phased research of a major National Social Science Fund-2018 project titled "Research on Major International Law Issues in Sino-Indian Relations", was published in the South Asian Studies (Issue 3/2020) of Sichuan University. Incidentally, Sichuan University was designated the nodal University for research on South Asia in 2017 by Chinese President Xi Jinping and allotted considerable funding. This issue of South Asian Studies was released on September 24, 2020.

Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Sep 2020
CHINA APPEARS TO HAVE INITIATED A PHASE OF DECEPTION ALONG THE LAC
Though China's statecraft and diplomacy have evolved after establishment of the People's Republic of China, camouflage, psywar, deception and deceit remain integral to the Chinese communist regime’s diplomatic practice.

Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Sep 2020
CHINESE THINKING ON THE INDIA-CHINA BORDER ISSUE
Recent utterances on the situation along the India-China Line of Actual Control (LAC) by Chinese officials – though infrequent – reflect the sentiment within China of strategists and academics specialising in International Relations. While there has been negligible coverage of the developments by the main print or TV channels, except in the Global Times which has been prolific, views have been expressed in articles and comments on China’s social media.

Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Sep 2020
CHINA’S SEVENTH TIBET WORK FORUM (AUGUST 29-30, 2020)
The Seventh Tibet Work Forum was held in Beijing on August 29-30, 2020. The Forum heralds a tougher regime for Tibetans in China, where the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will penetrate into each village and hamlet in the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR). There will be renewed emphasis on adapting Tibetan Buddhism to ‘socialism with Chinese characteristics’ and countering ‘separatism’ and the ‘Dalai clique’.

Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Sep 2020
XI JINPING’S EFFORTS TO CONSOLIDATE MARXIST IDEOLOGY AMONG CCP MEMBERS TO COUNTER U.S.
Confronted with growing tensions as US-China relations rapidly deteriorate, Chinese President Xi Jinping has asked Chinese Communist Party (CCP) members to prepare for a “protracted war” on multiple fronts. In addition to anticipated difficulties on the technology, economy and potentially military fronts, China’s communist leadership has taken special note of repeated American statements -- particularly by US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo -- about the threat from Chinese communism. For example, on August 25, the official CCP mouthpiece People’s Daily published a lengthy 3-page, 34,000-character response to Pompeo’s speech of July 23, at the Richard Nixon Presidential Library in California.

Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Aug 2020
POSSIBLE REPERCUSSIONS OF CHINA’S NATIONAL SECURITY LAW FOR HONGKONG
The National Security Law (NSL) was passed by China’s National People’s Congress (NPC) Standing Committee (SC) on June 30, 2020, amidst considerable concern and controversy in Hongkong. There was no doubt that the Law would be passed especially because of the political turmoil in Hongkong which had lasted throughout the preceding year. Though the US and particularly UK, the former colonial master of the territory, had cautioned against enactment of the NSL saying it violated the provisions of the handover in 1997 and the guarantees given by China under the “one country, two systems” that allow Hongkong to retain some fundamental rights, Beijing pushed ahead.

Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Aug 2020
TENSION IS HIGH WITHIN CHINA’S LEADERSHIP ECHELONS AS UNITED STATES MAINTAINS UNRELENTING PRESSURE
As China-US relations deteriorate rapidly and tensions mount, concern is growing in the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)’s leadership echelons about the next punitive steps that the Trump Administration might take. Barely a week has gone by in recent months without at least one punitive sanction being slapped on China by the US. These sanctions are beginning to increasingly impact on the CCP and its members. Contributing to the concerns are worries in Beijing that US President Trump has a tough contest in the upcoming Presidential elections in November and could be tempted to take some military action against China to boost his ratings.

Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Aug 2020
QIU SHI CALLS FOR PROTECTING XI JINPING AS “CORE” OF THE WHOLE CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY
There have been important developments in China’s domestic politics in recent weeks. These have built on the Party’s assessment of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s communist credentials. Coming as these do at a time when Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) are under considerable pressure due to domestic criticism and the economic situation, in addition to the all-round pressure exerted by the United States which have severely accentuated China’s difficulties, they assume significance. The CCP’s flagship theoretical magazine Qiu Shi (Seeking Truth) had in June 2014 -- within nineteen months of Xi Jinping’s assumption to power -- described Xi Jinping as “one of China’s greatest communist leaders” who had put forward “new thinking, new views and new conclusions”! That article signalled Xi Jinping’s capture of the CCP.

Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Aug 2020
LEADING PARTY JOURNAL QIU SHI PUBLICISES XI JINPING’S COMPILATION OF 18 PHRASES EXTOLLING CCP’S LEADERSHIP
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP)’s flagship theoretical fortnightly magazine in its latest (2020/14; July 15, 2020) issue published two important articles. One was an article by Xi Jinping captioned ‘“The Leadership of the Chinese Communist Party Is the Most Essential Characteristic of Socialism With Chinese Characteristics.” It was prominently publicised on July 15, by Xinhua and the official party mouthpiece ‘People’s Daily’ and as the lead news item by the state-controlled CCTV. The article is essentially a compilation of 18 phrases culled from Xi Jinping’ speeches of the past 7 years from December 2013 to October 2019.

Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Jul 2020
‘XI JINPING LAUNCHES ‘YAN’AN STYLE’ CAMPAIGN TO CLEANSE CHINA’S SECURITY APPARATUS’
The national security apparatus is the crown jewel of any country. Authoritarian regimes pay particular attention to them as they help preserve the regime and keep the population compliant and in check. China's communist leaders have, for obvious reasons, been conscious of the importance of the security apparatus. In the backdrop of the increasing criticism since 2017 -- including by senior communist cadres and ‘princelings’ -- of him personally and his policies, Xi Jinping too has turned his attention to ensuring the loyalty of the security apparatus. He has just this month unleashed a severe year-long ‘rectification’ campaign throughout China’s security system.

Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Jul 2020
CICIR'S ASSESSMENT OF CHINA’S MAJOR COUNTRY DIPLOMACY
The Chinese Institutes of Contemporary International Research (CICIR), a think-tank of China’s Ministry of State Security, published its analysis of ‘Chinese Major Country Diplomacy’ in May this year. The 9-page report authored by Chen Xiangyang, Director of the Research Group at CICIR, was divided into 6 sections titled: (i) Relations with Major Countries; (ii) Neighbour Countries; (iii) Global Governance; (iv) Protect Sovereignty against Foreign Intervention; (v) National Day Celebrations; and (vi) A New Era.

Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Jul 2020
CHINA: CONFERENCE ON PERIPHERAL DIPLOMACY
China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MoFA) and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Central Committee (CC)'s International Department (ID) together with the Yunnan University jointly hosted a conference on Peripheral Diplomacy on May 8, 2020. In addition to the Collaborative Innovation Center of MoFA, the Contemporary World Research Center of the CCP CC's International Department and the Peripheral Diplomacy Research Center of the Institute of International Relations of Yunnan University, there was participation by six other Universities and Institutes. The theme of the conference was 'Diplomacy around China in the context of the Coronavirus'.

Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Jul 2020
CHINESE RESEARCHERS SUGGEST MODULATION OF CHINA'S POLICY TOWARDS UNITED STATES
The growing strain in the US-China relationship continues to cause concern in the higher echelons of China’s leadership. Chinese think-tanks have cautioned that the situation could worsen considerably more and some, like the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, have recommended ways to bring about a change in public opinion in the US.

Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Jul 2020
CHINESE ASSESSMENTS OF THE INTERNATIONAL SITUATION
China’s largest and government-funded think-tank, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) and among the most influential, the Chinese Institutes of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR) of China’s Ministry of State Security, or foreign Intelligence establishment, published reports in May 2020 assessing the international situation.

Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Jul 2020
A BRIEF ASSESSMENT OF CHINA'S 3rd SESSION OF THE 13th CPPCC -- MAY 2020
As usual China’s top political advisory body, the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), held its annual plenary session in Beijing along with the National People’s Congress (NPC). The plenum was delayed this year and held two months later from May 21 to May 27, 2020, because of the Coronavirus pandemic.

Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Jun 2020
This was first published by Vivekananda International Foundation on June 23, 2020. Their link is: https://www.vifindia.org/article/2020/june/23/a-brief-assessment-of-chinas-3-session-of-the-13-the-chinese-peoples-political-consultative-conference
AN ASSESSMENT OF THE 3rd SESSION OF CHINA’S 13th NPC – MAY 2020
The 3rd Plenum of the 13th National People’s Congress (NPC) was held in Beijing from May 22 to 28, 2020, in the wake of the Coronavirus pandemic with restrictions on expenditure and social interaction.

Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Jun 2020
This was first published by Vivekananda International Foundation (VIF)
CHINA PROBABLY HAS A LARGER HIDDEN AGENDA
Since the beginning of May this year China has created an arc of sustained military pressure along India’s northern borders. This presently stretches from Daulet Beg Oldi in Ladakh, to Naku La over a thousand kilometres to the East in north Sikkim and possibly on to Bhutan. China’s action appears to blend military, civil and diplomatic instruments.

Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Jun 2020
(It was published on StratNews Global on June 8, 2020)
‘CHINA’S MILITARY AND THE NATIONAL PEOPLE’S CONGRESS’
The annual plenary meetings (May 21 -28), of China’s top political advisors who comprise the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) and Deputies to the National People’s Congress – China’s version of a parliament – in Beijing, are important events that give an insight into China’s economic situation, plans for the coming year and the thinking of China’s leadership. Commonly called the ‘Big Two’, the list of People’s Liberation Army (PLA) delegates attending the event yields clues as to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leadership’s areas of emphasis in the military as do their discussions.

Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Jun 2020
‘CHINA’S ‘BIG TWO’ HAVE DOMESTIC DISCONTENT AND US-CHINA TENSION
AS BACKDROP: INDIA FINDS MENTION IN US-CHINA EXCHANGE’

Domestic discontent and US-China relations are among the Chinese leadership’s two top concerns. To the discomfiture of China’s leadership both issues surfaced on May 21, 2020, the opening day in Beijing of the ‘Big Two’, as the plenary sessions of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) -- China’s top advisory body -- and the 13th National People’s Congress (NPC) plenum -- China’s version of a parliament -- are known. Xu Zhangrun, former Professor of Law at Beijing’s prestigious Tsinghua University and who has near iconic status among China’s academics and intellectuals, penned an over 2000-character essay advising NPC Deputies on twelve things they should do.

Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
May 2020
IMPLICATIONS OF THE ONGOING TENSION WITH CHINA ALONG THE LAC
China has accused India of crossing and violating the LAC. On 5 May the Chinese media reports said: On the May 18th, a reporter from the Global Times (in Chinese) learned from sources that the Chinese border guards have strengthened control over the Galwan Valley area and resolutely responded to the infringement of the Sino-Indian line to build facilities. According to relevant sources, since the beginning of May, the Indian side crossed the line into the Chinese territory and entered the Chinese territory, began to construct barriers, and blocked the normal patrol of the Chinese border defense forces.

Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
May 2020
(It has been published by VIF on May 26, 2020 and can be accessed at the following link https://www.vifindia.org/2020/may/26/implications-of-the-ongoing-tension-with-china-along-the-lac)
'CHINA'S VIEW OF TIES WITH THE U.S.-- HINTS OF CONCESSIONS?
High anxiety is apparent in the upper echelons of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leadership in Beijing at the present state of China-US relations. There is concern that escalating China-US tensions are at a “dangerous” turn and relations could further deteriorate leading even to conflict. Tensions have been sharply accentuated by the Coronavirus pandemic and consequent worldwide rise in anti-China sentiment, which China’s leadership assesses has been fanned by the US.

Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
May 2020
XI JINPING SHORES POSITION TO FEND-OFF OPPONENTS
CCP General Secretary and Chinese President Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) have been badly bruised by public criticism, which was accentuated by the initial mishandling of the Coronavirus epidemic in Wuhan. After an extended hiatus, which includes Xi Jinping’s unexplained disappearance from public view at the peak of the crisis between January 29 and February 10, Xi Jinping is now demonstrating his political authority and influence to shore his position and fend-off opponents.

Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
May 2020
CHINESE PRESIDENT XI JINPING REACTS TO INNER-PARTY OPPOSITION
After an extended hiatus when Covid-19 and the economy appeared to preoccupy the Chinese leadership, Chinese President Xi Jinping fired a warning shot across the bow of opponents and potential opponents in the middle and higher echelons of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). A meeting of the Politburo on April 17, 2020, chaired by Chinese President Xi Jinping approved the establishment of a new ‘Small Group’ on Security. It also approved its membership.

Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Apr 2020
CHINA AND THE POST COVID-19 WORLD
In the midst of the black clouds of the Coronavirus, or Covid-19, spreading uncertainty around the globe and governments grappling to stop the immense loss to human life and damage to their economies, world leaders have begun assessing the possible contours of the post Covid-19 world.

Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Apr 2020
CHINA'S ECONOMIC REVIVAL WILL FACE SERIOUS HEADWINDS
Quite apart from the huge tragic cost to human life caused by the Coronavirus (COVID- 19) pandemic, mishandling of which by China’s leadership has angered and frustrated the country’s citizens as evidenced by the riots at the border check-post between Hubei and Jiangxi provinces on March 28, the pandemic has severely impacted China’s economy. The epidemic virtually stopped China’s economic growth for nearly three months and rendered millions jobless.

Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Mar 2020
DISSATISFACTION WITH CHINESE PRESIDENT XI JINPING MOUNTS
Expressions of popular discontent in China have increased and are mounting pressure on Chinese President Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). The widespread anger among Chinese citizens at the lack of transparency and attempt to withhold information about outbreak of the Coronavirus epidemic was the spark that fanned the latent discontent which, provoked by the abolition of term-limits on appointments to China’s apex posts of President, Vice President and cadres to the Politburo and its Standing Committee, has been simmering since the 19th Party Congress in October 2017.

Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Mar 2020
THE COVID-19 EPIDEMIC AND CHINA’S ECONOMY
The Coronavirus epidemic struck China when it was in the midst of serious economic problems and high unemployment and Chinese economists were already candidly warning of a 1 percent drop in growth this year. The attempted cover-up by Chinese authorities of the Coronavirus epidemic for nearly two months -- unimaginable in democracies -- exacerbated economic losses and disruption in addition to causing the loss of numerous lives and delaying an international medical response to the virus.

Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Mar 2020
TIBET AUTONOMOUS REGION (TAR)’s EXPENDITURE ON PUBLIC SECURITY
Tibetans have till this day not acquiesced to China’s occupation of Tibet or large portions of its territory being merged with the neighbouring Xinjiang-Uyghur Autonomous Region and the Qinghai, Sichuan, Gansu and Yunnan provinces to create the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR) in September 1965. In the process Tibet was reduced in area from 2.5 million square kms to 1.2 million square kms.

Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Mar 2020
(It has been published by VIF at this link also. https://www.vifindia.org/2020/march/13/china-and-us-could-emerge-as-adversaries-over-the-tibet-issue )
CHINA AND U.S. COULD EMERGE AS ADVERSARIES OVER THE TIBET ISSUE
China’s communist authorities appear to have reached the conclusion approximately 18 months ago that the time for selecting the reincarnation of the XIVth Dalai Lama is drawing near. Since then they have stepped up efforts to capture the hearts and minds of the Tibetan people and adapt Tibetan Buddhism to “socialism with Chinese characteristics”.

Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Mar 2020
POPULAR PROTESTS UNDERMINE CHINESE PRESIDENT XI JINPING'S CREDIBILITY
Popular discontent and dissatisfaction with Chinese President Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) simmering since March 2018 erupted into overt public criticism from the end of January 2020, prompted by news of the Wuhan virus epidemic becoming public. There is presently little indication of it abating till at least the epidemic begins to peter out. By then it would have palpably dented, if not damaged, the credibility and image of Chinese President Xi Jinping and the CCP.

Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Feb 2020
DPP's WIN IN TAIWAN ELECTIONS WILL HAVE REPERCUSSIONS
The results of Taiwan’s national elections announced on January 12, confirmed assessments that Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen’s popularity ratings had received a substantial boost, partly because of China’s threatening posture but mainly because of the unceasing protests in Hongkong that have now entered their ninth month without losing popular support. The results will impact China. Beijing -- and Chinese President Xi Jinping -- now confront the prospect of the ‘China Dream’, envisaging China’s ‘reunification’ by 2021 or even 2049, becoming a distant prospect. The results could have wider repercussions in the region.

Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Jan 2020
CHINESE PRESIDENT XI JINPING FACES DIFFICULT TIMES AHEAD
There are clear indications that popular dissatisfaction and discontent with Chinese President Xi Jinping inside China continues to simmer just below the surface. The economic slowdown, unemployment and rising cost of living have contributed to the discontent.

Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Jan 2020
THE CHINA DREAM
An idea never dies and the Chinese elite understood that centuries ago! 2. The ‘China Dream’, or idea of making China great again, has been espoused by Chinese leaders for more than a couple of centuries and the idea continues to resonate with the Chinese people. The first popular expression of this sentiment was the Boxer Rebellion (1889-1901), which was anti-imperialist, anti-foreign and anti-Christian – together crystalising into resentment against the colonial powers who had divided China, as the Chinese say, ‘like an over-ripe pomegranate’! The narrative being propagated by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leadership of “a hundred years of humiliation” is part of this. Chinese leaders, including Mao Zedong and the founders of the CCP in 1921, have articulated this with varying intensity. One reason why it is called the ‘China Dream’ and not the Chinese Dream is that this is an idea that has inspired Chinese leaders and the leadership elite, and not the Chinese masses.

Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Nov 2019
CCP CC’S 4TH PLENUM COULD SUGGEST A DILUTION IN XI JINPING’S AUTHORITY
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) held the long overdue 4th plenary session of its 19th Central Committee (CC) from October 28 – 31, 2019. Held after a delay of nearly 20 months, the 4th Plenum took place at a time of some uncertainty in China, indicated also by speculative reports suggesting that the Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) could be expanded with the addition of a couple of new members. This speculation, which claimed that the induction of new members would signal a political setback for Xi Jinping, proved erroneous. However, while the Plenum communique unequivocally emphasised the Party’s importance in all spheres it, along with the Plenum Resolution issued on November 5 evening, did contain a hint that possibly Xi Jinping’s power has been slightly diluted.

Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Nov 2019
CHINA: PATH TO HI-TECHNOLOGY
The world is on the threshold of major technology advances that will translate what has so far been in the realm of science fiction to everyday reality. There is clear promise of transformational changes, with the next couple of decades being witness to technology driving almost every aspect of life.

Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Oct 2019
CAN THE SECOND XI-MODI SUMMIT TACKLE THE REALLY DIFFICULT ISSUES
In just around a fortnight in mid-October, Chinese President Xi Jinping is scheduled to arrive in India for his second ‘informal’ meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the ancient coastal town of Mamallapuram near Chennai. Xi Jinping is likely to combine it with a visit to neighbouring Nepal where China has in recent years acquired considerable influence, the pace of which has accelerated since installation of the communist government initially under Prachanda. Developments over the past months, however, make any meaningful progress at the Summit unlikely.

Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Oct 2019
(It was published on https://www.vifindia.org/2019/october/04/can-the-second-xi-modi-summit-tackle-the-really-difficult-issues )
CHINA’S XIAOKANG (WELL-OFF) BORDER DEFENCE VILLAGES IN TIBET AUTONOMOUS REGION
Since the 19th Party Congress in October 2017, Chinese President Xi Jinping has signalled that extra attention would be paid by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leadership to building a more comprehensive security structure in the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR). The new architecture strengthens the present security apparatus already in place and combines it with Chinese President Xi Jinping’s new initiative of ‘model ‘xiaokang’ (well-off) border defence villages’. It is part of his nationwide push for poverty alleviation spelt out at the 19th Party Congress. The ‘xiaokang’ (well-off) border defence villages’ are also intended to create a buffer inhabited by people loyal to the CCP and the nation.

Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Sep 2019
INNER-PARTY DIFFERENCES ON HONG KONG ISSUE POSE PROBLEMS FOR XI JINPING
China’s leadership will have been incensed by the photographs and videos of protestors in Hong Kong carrying American flags and chanting “America please take over Hong Kong” on September 9, in apparent escalation of the protests against Chinese rule by millions of Hong Kong residents that have continued over fifteen weekends in the adverse glare of international media publicity. It would have underscored the concerns of senior and veteran leaders at the annual gathering in Beidaihe of a ‘colour revolution’.

Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Sep 2019
(It was published on https://www.vifindia.org/article/2019/september/16/inner-party-differences-on-hong-kong-issue-pose-problems-for-xi-jinping on 16 September.)
THE US-CHINA TRADE WAR: FALL OUT IN CHINA
The mood in the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) hierarchy is sombre.

The US-China trade war as it is called marks a substantive change in the US-China relationship. Mutual suspicion now taints what Beijing has for decades described as its most important relationship. The bipartisan support that Trump’s new policy towards China enjoys points to strains in the relationship lasting for quite some time and, in any case, fundamentally altering it.

Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Aug 2019
NO CHANGE IN CHINESE PRESIDENT XI JINPING’S ASSERTIVE POLICIES DESPITE PRESSURE
Since more than the past 18 months Chinese President Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) have been under increasing pressure because of the US-China Tariff war. Washington has also been trying to create an adverse international environment for China. The recent troubles in Hongkong, blamed by the official Chinese media as the handiwork of hostile foreign forces, are additionally problematic. Domestically too, the cost of living is rising and China’s economy has been slowing thereby contributing to increased unemployment and sparking worker unrest.

Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Jul 2019
BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE (BRI) AND ITS FUTURE IMPLICATIONS
When we look at the BRI, it is important to look at it from a broader perspective. Over the last decade or so, there has been a flux in global geopolitics. The older established powers are being challenged by other emerging centers of power especially in Asia. It is in this context that we have to look at BRI, the evolution of which coincides with this flux. In addition there is an attempt by China to reshape the world order as we know it.

Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Apr 2019
AN ASSESSMENT OF THE SECOND PLENUM OF CHINA’S 13TH NATIONAL PEOPLE’S CONGRESS
2158 delegates of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) and 2948 Deputies of the National People’s Congress (NPC) convened in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing in the first fortnight of March 2019, for their respective annual plenary sessions. The plenary sessions set the agenda for the year ahead and accorded formal approval of the entire 89 million-strong Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to the policies, programmes and budget of the CCP leadership for the coming year.

Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Apr 2019
CPEC AND CHALLENGES FOR PAKISTAN
China’s ‘One Belt, One Road’, which was first proposed in September 2013 and combines the twin initiatives of the Silk Road Economic Belt and 21st Century Maritime Silk Road, is a grand concept that envisions China girdling the globe. Potentially covering 55 per cent of the world GNP, 70 per cent of the global population, and 75 per cent of known energy reserves, it is essentially a plan for a China-built land and sea transportation artery to link China’s production centres with markets and natural resource centres around the world.

Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
(It was published in April, 2019 by http://www.pugwashindia.com)
INITIAL ASSESSMENT OF CHINA’S CPPCC PLENARY SESSION - 2019
Earlier in March this year, China successfully concluded plenary meetings of the Party’s top two bodies, which set the agenda for the year ahead. 2158 delegates of China's top political advisory body, the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) gathered in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing from March 9 - 11, 2019. The CPPCC’s responsibilities include supervising the United Front Work Department (UFWD) and overseas work relating to China’s ethnic minorities, enacting regulations and policies for China’s ethnic minorities, interacting with noncommunist entities and forging relations with foreign political parties, creating pro- Beijing lobbies abroad etc. The plenary sessions are intended to formalise approval of the 89 million-strong Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to its leadership’s policies, programmes and budget for the coming year.

Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Mar 2019
CHINA INTENSIFIES EFFORTS TO DIMINISH DALAI LAMA'S INFLUENCE
There has been a visible acceleration over the past many months in the efforts of the Chinese authorities to diminish and undermine the XIVth Dalai Lama’s influence over Tibetans inside China. Additionally, this year is marked by a number of anniversaries in China's political calendar including the 70th year of the founding of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in October, the founding anniversary of the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) in April as well as the sensitive thirtieth anniversary of the Tiananmen ‘incident’ in June and sixtieth anniversary of the XIVth Dalai Lama's flight from Tibet on March 10. The latter two would be cause for the most unease to China’s leadership. The current strain in Sino-US relations has added to Beijing’s worries.

Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
(It has been published by VIF and link is: https://www.vifindia.org/article/2019/march/15/china-intensifies-efforts-to-diminish-dalai-lama-s-influence)

CHINESE STATE COUNCILLOR AND PUBLIC SECURITY MINISTER ZHAO KEZHI’S VISIT YIELDS LITTLE TANGIBLE
Chinese State Councillor and Minister of Public Security Zhao Kezhi arrived in India on October 22,for visits to Delhi and Mumbai at the head of a 20-member security delegation. It included 13 officials of China’s Ministry of Public Security (MPS) and 3 from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MoFA). He later travelled to Bangladesh where too he had high-level meetings including with Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina.India and Bangladesh are both, coincidentally, headed into national elections in the coming months.

Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Oct 2018

THE US-CHINA TRADE WAR: A STRATEGIC MOVE
Major changes in the international geo-political landscape, anticipated since the global economic downturn in 2008, are now beginning to occur. The Sino-US relationship, one of the world’s most important in the past nearly four decades, is undergoing fundamental change with US President Donald Trump translating into action the apprehensions of the US establishment about China’s rise and potential challenge to US primacy. He is the first US President since Nixon to begin altering the nature of US relations with China.

Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Sep 2018

TIBET IS RECEIVING HIGHER PRIORITY IN RECENT MONTHS
High level cadres of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) do not often travel outside Beijing unless it is to ‘Red Revolutionary’ historical sites or because of a natural calamity or an important event or meeting. The visits, therefore, in the short span of a month by the second and fourth ranking members of the CCP’s Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) – two among the seven who ‘rule’ the People’s Republic of China – are unusual and significant. At the least it suggests that the top echelon of the CCP is according new, enhanced priority to the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR). Chinese Premier Li Keqiang visited TAR in July while Wang Yang, PBSC member and Chairman of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) which China’s minority nationalities affairs and religious activities, travelled there a month later in August 2018.

Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Sep 2018

COMPOSITION AND IMPLICATIONS OF CHINESE DEFENCE MINISTER WEI FENGHE’S VISIT TO INDIA
India and China have planned to exchange a few important visits in the remaining months of this year. An Army Commander from India is scheduled to travel to China in a few weeks, the first visit by an Army Commander since 2015, followed by National Security Advisor Doval and possibly another high level visit. Chinese Defence Minister General Wei Fenghe, who was on a 4-day visit to India from August 21, is the first of the important visitors from China. He is to be followed in a couple of months by China’s Minister of Public Security Zhao Kezhi, who has worked closely with one of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s closest associates and current right hand man Li Zhangshu.

Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Aug 2018

CHINA'S MARITIME CHALLENGE IN THE INDO-PACIFIC
With the status quo under challenge and competition for strategic space intensifying, especially among the major regional powers in the Indo-Pacific, the region has seen an increase in tensions. China’s ‘rise’ has fuelled its ambition to become a global power. The perceived decline of the US, its reduced interest in the region and its reluctance to back even treaty allies, like Japan and the Philippines, has encouraged China and exacerbated the situation.
(This article was first published by VIF on 22 May, 2018 and can be accessed on the link http://www.vifindia.org/2018/may/22/china-s-maritime-challenges-in-the-indo-pacific)

Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
May 2018

PEOPLE'S LIBERATION ARMY (PLA) AND PEOPLE'S ARMED POLICE (PAP) DEPUTIES TO CHINA’S THIRTEENTH NATIONAL PEOPLE'S
Chen Min’er, Politburo member and recently appointed Party Secretary of the centrally administered Chongqing Municipality, said on the sidelines of the NPC session on March 6, 2018, that investigating former Politburo members Bo Xilai and Sun Zhengcai had removed "major political hidden dangers for the party" and that "They both are the source of the pollution of the political ecology, and they massively harmed Chongqing's officials."
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Mar 2018

XI JINPING PREPARES TO LEAD CHINA INTO NEW THIRTY YEAR ERA
Last week there was a major, though anticipated, development in China’s internal politics with the announcement that term limits on the posts of China’s President and Vice President would be abolished. Removing the limitation on these tenures establishes Xi Jinping’s pre-eminent stature and allows him to continue interminably subject to his health.
The decision potentially has immense implications and long-term repercussions.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Mar 2018

SITUATION IN MALDIVES COULD POTENTIALLY FURTHER RAISE INDIA-CHINA TENSIONS
The political uncertainty and social instability in the Indian Ocean archipelago of the Maldives has the potential to increase tensions between India and China. Since its independence in 1966, when India was the first country to recognise it, the Maldives has been perceived as within India’s sphere of influence and sought and received India’s assistance in times of dire need.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Feb 2018

DISTANCING THE PLA FROM POLITICS – REPRESENTATIVES IN CCP STANDING COMMITTEES
From 2015, PLA officers began being removed from the Provincial Party Standing Committees. Indications are now surfacing that this policy is under review and possibly being reversed. A major reversal in this policy has, however, become evident from December 2017 since when PLA officers have begun being brought back into the Provincial Party Standing Committees.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Jan 2018

DIFFERENT FACETS OF THE DOKLAM FACE-OFF: AN OVERVIEW
The 73-day face-off between India and China at Doklam that ended on August 28, 2017 marks an important juncture in India-China relations. The nature of the military deployments, kind of Chinese propaganda offensive not witnessed in over 40 years, and actions of the Chinese Foreign Ministry and Chinese Embassy in New Delhi, set it apart from earlier stand-offs.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Dec 2017

ANALYSIS OF CHINA’S 19TH PARTY CONGRESS
Already holding over fourteen formal positions -- more than any other CCP leader so far – CCP CC General Secretary Xi Jinping has, as anticipated, emerged considerably stronger from this Congress. By skilful use of the sustained anti-corruption campaign he has eliminated opposition in the Party and military and drastically reduced the influence wielded by his predecessor once removed, Jiang Zemin. In September 2017, China’s official media publicised that more than 176 CCP cadres equivalent to the rank of central Vice Minister and above had been dismissed and arrested for corruption and that more than 14,000 officers of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) had been similarly dismissed. At least 120 officers of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) of and above the rank of Major General have been dismissed and retired.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Nov 2017

FULL MEMBERS OF 19TH CENTRAL COMMITTEE
丁晓光 Ding Xiaoguang
丁来杭 Ding Laihang
丁学东 Ding Xuedong
丁薛祥 Ding Xuexiang
于伟国 Yu Weiguo ....
CHINA'S 19th PARTY CONGRESS INDICATES NO CHANGE IN CHINA'S POLICY TOWARDS TIBET
The week long (October 18-24, 2017) 19th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), which was held in Beijing, concluded as anticipated with Xi Jinping emerging considerably stronger. For those watching the Congress for clues as to Xi Jinping’s policies towards China’s ethnic minorities and especially Tibet and Xinjiang, however, there appears little prospect of any relaxation of controls. An indication was the sharp drop in the number of ethnic minority cadres elected to the new 19th Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Central Committee (CC).
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Oct 2017

Alternate members of 19th central committee
1. Ma Zhengwu
2. Ma Weiming(Old)
3. Ma Guoqiang(Hui ethnic group)
4. Wang Ning(Fujian)(Old)
5. Wang Yongkang
6. Wang Weizhong
7. Wang Xudong
8. Wang Xiubin ...
CHINA’S 19th PARTY CONGRESS: NEW LEADERS TO STEER CHINA TO THE CHINA DREAM
The week long (October 18-24, 2017) 19th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), which was held in Beijing, concluded as anticipated with Xi Jinping emerging considerably stronger. His contribution to Chinese communist ideology was recognised and unanimously approved for incorporation into the Party Constitution as ‘Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese characteristics for a New Era’. He is the first CCP leader to have his contribution, attached to his name, enshrined in the Party Constitution while still alive. This places it next in heft to those of Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping, especially with the Chinese media already having begun to headline it as “Xi Jinping Thought”!
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Oct 2017

INITIAL ASSESSMENT OF XI JINPING’S WORK REPORT AT 19TH PARTY CONGRESS
The crucial 19th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) opened in Beijing on October 18, 2017, amidst stringent security restrictions in Beijing and other major cities in China. Nearly a thousand foreign reporters from 130 countries are reported to be covering the Congress. The Congress was preceded by other important meetings, namely the 7th and last Plenum of the 18th CCP Central Committee (CC), and of the Party’s powerful anti-corruption body the Central Discipline Inspection Commission (CDIC) chaired by Xi Jinping’s close associate and Politburo Standing Committee member, Wang Qishan.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Oct 2017

INITIAL ASSESSMENT OF XI JINPING’S WORK REPORT AT 19TH PARTY CONGRESS
The 19th Party Congress, crucial for Xi Jinping achieving his agenda for ‘national rejuvenation’, opened on October 18, 2017, amidst stringent security in Beijing and other major Chinese cities including the autonomous regions of Tibet and Xinjiang.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Oct 2017

PLA's 253 DELEGATES FOR THE 19TH PARTY CONGRESS
On September 6, 2017, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) and People's Armed Police Force (PAPF) announced that they had elected a total of 303 Delegates to the 19th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). The PLA elected 253 Delegates to represent it at the 19th Party Congress, which will open in Beijing on October 18, 2017. A list identifying the 253 individuals together with almost all their designations is appended.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Sep 2017

Brief Analysis of Chinese Propaganda during India-China Face-off at Doklum
An analysis of China’s propaganda effort and its state-owned media’s coverage between June 16 and August 1, 2017, during the ongoing face-off between Indian and Chinese troops on the Doklum Plateau, yields some interesting insights.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Aug 2017

CHINA : DELEGATES SELECTED TO THE 19TH PARTY CONGRESS
Preparations for the 19th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) which, according to credible reports is likely to be held towards the end of October 2017, are well underway. The election of 2,300 Delegates to the Party Congress from 40 electoral blocs has virtually been completed. 2,270 Delegates were elected to the 18th Party Congress in November 2012. 1,909 Delegates for the 19th Party Congress representing Central Departments directly under the CCP Central Committee (CC), Central State organs, the Central Enterprise system and the provinces and centrally-administered Municipalities, have been elected.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Jul 2017

CHINA’S INTERNAL SITUATION BEFORE THE 19TH PARTY CONGRESS: AN OVERVIEW
Especially since the 18th Party Congress in November 2012 and as China moves to convene the 19th Party Congress in November 2017, there has been a steady hardening of the Chinese State. Political stability and regime survival have been top on the Party agenda and to ensure this Xi Jinping has introduced progressively restrictive domestic measures and promoted the rise in nationalism.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Jun 2017

XI JINPING'S POLITICAL POWER BASE
Since his appointment simultaneously to China's three top posts of General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Central Committee (CC), Chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC) and President of China at the 18 th Party Congress in November 2012, Xi Jinping has steadily acquired and consolidated greater authority. In addition to the post of Commander-in-Chief of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) that he assumed on April 20, 2016, Xi Jinping heads a majority of the Central Leading Small Groups (CLSGs).
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Jan 2017

CHINA’S SIXTH PLENUM DESIGNATES XI JINPING AS ‘CORE’ OF THE LEADERSHIP
After four days (October 24-27, 2016) of deliberations at the military-owned Jingxi Hotel in Beijing, 197 full members and 151 alternate members attending the Sixth Plenary session of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)’s 18th Central Committee (CC) under the chairmanship of Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed that Xi Jinping would henceforth be designated the “core” (he xin) of the Party Centre, or fifth generation leadership. The decision, contained in the over 6000-word Plenum document, however, clearly seemed to hold back from granting Xi Jinping unfettered authority by equally carefully emphasising “collective leadership” and asserting that “no party organisation or individual should suppress or undermine intra-party democracy”.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Nov 2016

CHINA’S NEW APPOINTMENTS AND THE NEW TIBET PARTY SECRETARY
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Oct 2016

‘THE CHINA-PAKISTAN ECONOMIC CORRIDOR—IMPLICATIONS’
The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), announced during Chinese President Xi Jinping’s well-publicised two-day (April 20-21, 2015) visit to Pakistan and with a value estimated by Pakistanis at US$ 46 billion, is a bold geo-economic initiative which alters the strategic environment in the region. It is the first step towards implementing the recommendation of Chinese strategists that “China should begin to shape, rather than just integrate into, the regional and international environment because China now has the capacity to do so”. It has begun to alter the status quo and potentially bend borders in the region.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Jul 2016

‘CHINA’S ROAD & BELT INITIATIVE: INDIAN PERSPECTIVE
China’s ‘One Belt, One Road’, which was first proposed in September 2013 and combines the twin initiatives of the Silk Road Economic Belt and 21st Century Maritime Silk Road, is a grand concept that envisions China girdling the globe. Potentially covering 55 percent of the world GNP, 70 percent of the global population, and 75 percent of known energy reserves, it is essentially a plan for a China-built land and sea transportation artery to link China’s production centres with markets and natural resource centres around the world.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
May 2016

CHINA’S ‘BIG TWO’ SESSIONS SIGNAL POLICY SHIFT ON DALAI LAMA
A definitive shift was discernible in Beijing’s policy towards the Dalai Lama at the 4th plenary session of the 12th National People’s Congress (NPC), China’s version of a parliament, that concluded in Beijing on March 15, 2016. China additionally utilised the Chinese People’s Consultative Conference (CPPCC) and NPC sessions – popularly called the ‘Big Two’ -- to subtly continue its efforts to drive a wedge between the Dalai Lama and the various Tibetan Buddhist sects in the bid to undermine his influence and isolate him. Remarks by officials of the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR) on the sidelines of the ‘Big Two’ clarified that there would be no relaxation in the tough policies being implemented in Tibet.
JAYADEVA RANADE
Mar 2016

‘UPGRADED SINO-PAK RELATIONSHIP INCREASES PRESSURE ON INDIA’
At times individual events irreversibly change the dynamics of regional geopolitics and texture of bilateral relations. Xi Jinping’s well publicised two day (April 20-21, 2015) visit to Pakistan, barely three weeks prior to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi arriving in China, is one such.
JAYADEVA RANADE, President, CCAS
Mar 2016

PLA REFORM, REORGANISATION, RESTRUCTURING AND IMPLICATIONS FOR INDIA
In a clear demonstration of his authority and confidence over the New Year, Chinese President Xi Jinping began implementing the crucial second phase of military reforms announced earlier on September 3, 2015. The reorganisation and restructuring of the 2.3 million-strong People’s Liberation Army (PLA), described by Chinese analysts as the most “extensive” ever and which has been on the drawing board since well before 2011, is the most critical reform initiative taken by Xi Jinping since he took over in November 2012.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Feb 2016

‘MAJOR STRUCTURAL REFORMS IN PEOPLE’S LIBERATION ARMY (PLA): BRIEF INITIAL ASSESSMENT’
The crucial phase of the major military reforms -- described as 'far reaching and unprecedented' -- that were publicly announced on September 3, 2015, by Xi Jinping, who is concurrently the General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), President of China and Chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC), began to be implemented over New Year’s Eve. While the reforms have yet to be fully implemented, an initial assessment of the difficulties in implementation and their scope would perhaps be useful.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Jan 2016

CHINA: THE FIFTH PLENUM OF THE 18TH CCP CC (OCT 26-29, 2015)’
The 4-day (October 26-29, 2015) eighth session of the 18th Chinese Communist Party (CCP)’s Central Committee (CC)’s Fifth Plenum has, as expected, further strengthened and consolidated Party General Secretary Xi Jinping’s authority and position. The 5,923-character Communique issued promptly after the Fifth Plenum on October 29, 2015, exuded confidence as it firmly set out the path for reforms with the focus on all-round development and asserted China’s goals for the next five years including that of “building a moderately prosperous society by 2020”. There were, interestingly, few references to ‘stability’ despite the steadily growing number of popular protests which China officially estimates at more than 500 each day, and the ‘Chinese Dream’ unveiled by Xi Jinping at the 18th Party Congress in November 2012 was enshrined in the Plenum Communique.
Jayadeva Ranade
Nov 2015

XI JINPING AND CHINA’S MAJOR MILITARY REFORMS -- 2015
Chinese President Xi Jinping’s public announcement downsizing the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) at the grand military parade on September 3, 2015, was a major event. It signalled that the final stages of reform and reorganization of the PLA would begin now that internal consensus had been reached. Despite the transparently thin attempt to package the 300,000-personnel troop reduction as a move towards promoting peace, the troop reduction is actually part of a long-planned effort to streamline and strengthen the PLA and fashion it into a hi-tech, lethal, ‘informationised’ force capable of defending China’s national interests at home and abroad while expanding China’s strategic space.
JAYADEVA RANADE
Nov 2015

‘CHINESE PRESIDENT XI JINPING’S FIRST STATE VISIT (SEPTEMBER 23-28, 2015) TO USA’
Chinese President Xi Jinping’s first state visit to the US later this month is important and comes amidst escalating testiness in the Sino-US bilateral relationship and growing wariness in the higher echelons of the Chinese leadership about US intentions.
JAYADEVA RANADE
Sep 2015

‘CHINA’S FOCUS ON MILITARY ACTIVITIES IN TIBET’
China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and the country’s official military media have kept a discernible focus on the activities and exercises of the PLA formations deployed in Tibet in the past some months.
JAYADEVA RANADE
Aug 2015

‘BRIEF ANALYSIS OF CHINESE OFFICIAL MEDIA REPORTING ON PRIME MINISTER MODI’S VISIT TO CHINA’
Brief analysis of the Chinese official media reporting on the Indian Prime Minister Modi's visit to China
by JAYADEVA RANADE
Jun 2015

‘THE SECOND MODI-XI JINPING SUMMIT’
Analyzes the Indian PM Narendra Modi's state visit to China and particularly in the context of India-China relations.
JAYADEVA RANADE, President, CCAS
Apr 2015

INDIA CHINA RELATIONS – AN INTROSPECTION
Analyses the trends and fault-lines in India-China relations after 1962
Saurabh Kumar, IFS (retd.) (formerly Ambassador of India to the UN and other International Organisations in Vienna; Austria; Ireland & Vietnam)
Sep 2014

CHINA'S PROPOSED MARITIME SILK ROAD (MSR): IMPACT ON INDIAN FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICIES
Analyzes the repercussions of the Maritime Silk Road (MSR) proposal for India
Brig.(Retd) Arun Sahgal, PhD
Jul 2014

GEOPOLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS AND INDIA-CHINA RELATIONS
Analyzes China's foreign and strategic policies and particularly in the context of India- China relations
JAYADEVA RANADE, President, CCAS
Jul 2014

BEIJING: A BULL in AFRICAS CHINA SHOP?
Deconstructs the recent visit of Chinese Premier Li Keqiang in Africa
Narayani Basu
May 2014

CHINA IN TRANSITION
Valedictory Address at the Chennai Centre for China Studies on March 8, 2014
JAYADEVA RANADE, President, CCAS
May 2014

THE SIGNIFICANCE OF INDIA-CHINA RELATIONS
Mr. Menon's speech at the inauguration of CCAS on the significance of India-China relations
Mr. Shiv Shankar Menon, NSA
May 2014

CHINA'S NEW POLICY OF PERIPHERAL DIPLOMACY
The end objective of China's peripheral diplomacy is to use alternative strategies to achieve global leadership.
JAYADEVA RANADE, President, CCAS
May 2014

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