CHINA-THE 'CHINA DREAM' EXPLAINED BY ITS AUTHOR PLA COLONEL LIU MINGFU

Excerpts from a recent interview by Asahi Shimbun with Retired PLA Colonel and Professor at China's National Defense University, Liu Mingfu, who wrote the 'China Dream'  are reproduced below. He spoke about his views of the threat of a major military conflict between China and the United States, and the future of Taiwan and Chinese policy toward Japan. Liu Mingfu's book has been referred to by Xi Jinping. Excerpts of his answers follow:

Liu Mingfu (LM): The strategy I have in mind is made up of three aspects.

The first aspect of the dream is to create a prosperous nation. That means completing the great reconstruction of the Chinese people by 2049, which will mark the centennial of the founding of the People's Republic of China. The goal is to surpass the United States in overall national power in terms of the economy as well as science and technology.

The second aspect is to create a strong military that would give China a first-class one that exceeds even that of the United States, which is now the strongest in the world.

The final part of the dream is for unification.

LM: I believe resolving the Taiwan issue is an important strategic objective in achieving 'The China Dream.' China cannot become a first-class nation in the world while it remains a divided state. I am confident that President Xi will work actively on the Taiwan issue and achieve ultimate unification of the nation while he is in office.

While first seeking out peaceful unification, I also believe he will not refrain from also preparing for military action.

LM: It is inconceivable that China would abandon its goal of unification because it feared possible intervention by the United States. For the United States, Taiwan is nothing more than one card to use to contain China so I believe there is a low possibility of any military intervention by the United States that might lead to all-out war.

Moreover, when China does make the move for military unification, it will be at a time when it possesses the military capability to defeat any intervention by the United States.

LM: No, that would not mean bringing back all the geographic maps of past Chinese empires. There have been major territorial changes over the 2,000 or so years from the Qin Dynasty to the Qing Dynasty. It is not clear what period would serve as the standard. The map used by the current Chinese government is the clear standard for national sovereignty and territory.

LM: Not only does China have a border dispute with India, but also many difficult territorial issues with neighboring nations in the South China Sea and the East China Sea. There would be no end in sight if military force was used to resolve all those territorial issues. China's consistent direction has been to resolve such issues in a peaceful manner through negotiations with the relevant nations.

LM: Over the next 30 years, the strategic competition between China and the United States will be at a major scale that we have never experienced before.

In fact, I feel a 'new Cold War' between China and the United States started a number of years ago. The rebalancing strategy used by the Barack Obama administration placing emphasis on the Asia-Pacific region was the first move toward a new Cold War with China. The Trump administration's vision for a 'free and open Indo-Pacific' can be considered the second such move.

It has now started a 'trade war' and a 'science and technology war.' Applying pressure on Huawei, which is only a single Chinese corporation, is going way out of line. The new Cold War is becoming even more serious because not only has a trade war been added, but pressure is also being applied over a wider range, including on the Taiwan issue.

LM: A further worsening of China-U.S. relations will be unavoidable. The most dangerous period will be the next 10 years. As more time passes, the gap in national power with China will become smaller for the United States, and it will find itself in a more disadvantageous position. I feel that the United States will deploy aircraft carrier groups to waters near China and also use allies, such as Japan, to apply further pressure on China. That will be a period when China will need strategic defenses so it will have to prepare and accumulate the capability to respond to the United States.

Over the second decade when there is a smaller difference in national power, the two nations will continue eyeing each other in a serious manner. The United States will be in decline in the last decade and that will be a time when China can finally gain the initiative.

LM: It is not a crime to overtake the United States. In track and field, the athlete who puts in a better result as a result of competition with rivals is declared the winner. But China is not seeking to seize the U.S. position as global hegemon. It is seeking to create a new world where no hegemon exists.

The new world order that China is now calling for will be more civilized and will bring greater happiness to people.

LM: The world is now in a time of drastic change that only comes about once in a century, but that means there is also the opportunity to make major changes.

The state objective of China is nothing but the realization of 'the China dream' that is the great reconstruction of the Chinese people. The core strategy will be the Belt and Road Initiative that will connect the world and bring happiness through cooperation. The ultimate objective will be to create a joint community of mankind.

LM: No, the Chinese Communist Party does have a grand strategy. In the last years under Mao Zedong, even though China was still poor and backward, it was able to work together with the United States to create a relationship meant to keep the Soviet Union in place. Through the reform and open-door policy started under Deng Xiaoping, China became the world's second largest economy.

Such miraculous development would not have been possible without a grand strategy.

LM: The Belt and Road Initiative is not meant to expand socialist forces or to create a camp that can stand up to the United States. The objective is to promote joint development by emphasizing the domestic political situation of each separate nation.

More than 150 nations and international organizations have already decided to participate.

LM: With the exception of China and North Korea and a few other nations, East Asia is under the influence of the United States. In particular, Japan continues to be in a situation of a 'client state' strictly controlled by the United States in terms of foreign affairs and national security. That is the major issue facing East Asia.

LM: During the Meiji Restoration, Japan pushed forward with a stance of 'escaping Asia and becoming like the West.' After World War II, Japan took a strategy of 'escaping the West and becoming like the United States.' I believe Japan now faces a third turning point. Now is the perfect opportunity for Japan to utilize the emergence of China and Asia, which is geographically close to it.

Now is the time for Japan to escape from an excessive dependence on the United States and 'return to Asia.' With China breaking through the efforts by the United States to contain it, Japan should move away from being controlled by the United States and cooperate with China to create a new order in East Asia.

 







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