- Mr. Jayadeva Ranade at NDC
- Mr. Jayadeva Ranade at NDC
- Mr. Jayadeva Ranade at NDC
ISSUE/POLICY BRIEFS & REPORTS
MILITARY OVERTONES IN XI JINPING’S RECENT VISITS TO TIBET AND XINJANG
Chinese President Xi Jinping's recent visits to the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR) and the Xinjiang-Uygur Autonomous Region at the head of high-level, delegations for their 60th and 70th founding anniversaries on August 21-22 and September 23-25, 2025 respectively, were significant. Both are sensitive border regions where the restive Tibetan and Uygur ethnic minorities are in the majority. Together the two Autonomous Regions comprise nearly 25 percent of the People's Republic of China (PRC)'s land area. This was Xi Jinping's fourth visit to Tibet and the second as Chinese President. It was his first visit to Xinjiang as President. The visits…
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Oct 2025
View PDFTHE RECENT FLIRTATION WITH U.S. CANNOT WEAKEN PAKISTAN’S TIES WITH CHINA
The recent meetings between Pakistan Prime Minister Shabaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir, public recommendation of Trump for the Nobel Prize, and symbolic presentation of rare earth samples to Trump, have triggered speculation that Pakistan is shifting alignments and moving closer to the U.S. The speculation ignores that Pakistan and the US have quietly maintained close and cordial ties over the decades and that the China-Pakistan relationship has got steadily consolidated and deepened since the two countries established diplomatic relations in 1951. The relationship intensified after the Sino-India war in 1962. Since then, as their interests converged, the China-Pakistan…
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Oct 2025
View PDFCHINESE PRESIDENT XI JINPING’S ‘IMPORTANT’ VISIT TO XINJIANG-UYGHUR AUTONOMOUS REGION
Reinforcing the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leadership’s concern about stability in China’s border areas and its elevated efforts to assimilate the ethnic minorities in the majority Han cultural mainstream, Chinese President Xi Jinping visited China’s two largest autonomous regions with majority ethnic populations.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Sep 2025
View PDFDEPENDENCY TO SELF-RELIANCE: INDIA'S PATH AWAY FROM CHINESE IMPORTS
India and China, two of Asia’s largest and most influential economies, have long shared a complex and evolving trade relationship that significantly impacts the broader Indo-Pacific region. Over the past few decades, as China emerged as the world’s manufacturing hub and India developed into one of the fastest-growing consumer markets, bilateral trade between the two nations expanded exponentially. Today, China stands as one of India’s largest trading partners, particularly on the import side, supplying a wide range of goods from electronics and machinery to toys, chemicals, textiles, and even essential health and hygiene products.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE and Ms. PARI ARORA
Aug 2025
View PDFCHINESE PRESIDENT XI JINPING’S VISIT TO TIBET WAS IMPORTANT
As anticipated, Chinese President Xi Jinping visited the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR) to participate in the celebrations to mark the 60th founding anniversary of the TAR. Due to security concerns he did not visit Lhasa on September 9 – the actual date of the anniversary – but on August 20-21 and the dates of the visit were not disclosed till just hours earlier. Chinese leaders have avoided visiting Lhasa on the actual date of the anniversary for nearly the past fifteen years. The last time China celebrated this anniversary in Lhasa on September 9 was the tenth anniversary in 1975.…
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Aug 2025
View PDFCHINESE PRESIDENT XI JINPING’S VISIT TO TIBET WAS IMPORTANT
As anticipated, Chinese President Xi Jinping visited the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR) to participate in the celebrations to mark the 60th founding anniversary of the TAR. Due to security concerns he did not visit Lhasa on September 9 – the actual date of the anniversary – but on August 20-21 and the dates of the visit were not disclosed till just hours earlier. Chinese leaders have avoided visiting Lhasa on the actual date of the anniversary for nearly the past fifteen years. The last time China celebrated this anniversary in Lhasa on September 9 was the tenth anniversary in 1975.…
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Aug 2025
View PDFXI JINPING’S 3-NATION TOUR THIS APRIL WAS STRATEGICALLY TIMED
Xi Jinping’s three-nation four-day (April 14-18) tour to Vietnam, Malaysia and Cambodia has been described by China’s official media as an "important strategic initiative". The visit was carefully crafted so that China does not appear overbearing and it could win over the three Southeast Asian nations. For instance, keeping in mind that Vietnam had not endorsed the term "common destiny" in the joint statement issued during Vietnamese Communist Party General Secretary To Lam’s visit to Beijing in August 2024, Xi Jinping did not speak of a "community of common destiny", but chose instead to speak of a "community with a…
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Jun 2025
View PDFCHINA'S INTENTIONS TOWARDS INDIA HAVE NOT CHANGED
While Chinese leaders are making statements that attempt to gloss over the developments of recent years and seek to convey that China is keen on normalising relations and that together the two can develop and grow their economies, the reality is quite different. At no point since April 2020 have Chinese leaders conceded their error in launching a military operation to “teach India a lesson”. On the contrary, a recent report by a Chinese think-tank reveals that China’s People’s Liberation Army has been augmenting its forces in Tibet and upgrading war preparedness.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Apr 2025 (This Issue Brief was first published by Vivekananda International foundation (VIF))
View PDFTHE ISSUE OF THE DALAI LAMA’S REINCARNATION HAS GAINED A HIGHER PROFILE
The issue of the Dalai Lama is attracting increased attention in recent months. Conscious of the XIVth Dalai Lama’s advancing age, many in the Tibetan community in India and abroad are concerned about whether the succession will be smooth. There is a widespread feeling among the Tibetan diaspora that China will create problems, including attempts to fragment the Tibetan community in exile. Apparently recognising this, the Dalai Lama’s new book titled 'Voice for the Voiceless: Over Seven Decades of Struggle with China for My Land and My People', which was released on March 9, was categoric that the next Dalai…
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Mar 2025
View PDFXI JINPING CONCERNED ABOUT WEAKENING POLITICAL IDEOLOGY IN PLA
There are adequate signs that Chinese President Xi Jinping and senior echelons of the Chinese leadership are concerned at the levels of corruption in the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and China’s defence industry. They are more worried at the wavering in the political and ideological commitment of PLA officers and personnel to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Central Committee (CC). Accordingly, a major new education campaign focussed on instilling political loyalty to Xi Jinping has been launched. On February 5, a “Notice” in the PLA Daily, whose importance was highlighted as it was issued under the signature of its Editor,…
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Feb 2025 (This Issue Brief was first published by Vivekananda International foundation (VIF))
View PDFFROM SHIPYARDS TO HIGH SEAS: CHINA’s SHIPBUILDING DOMINANCE
Maritime transport is a critical component of international trade, connecting countries and supporting the global economy. Ninety per cent of the world's goods are transported by sea, contributing significantly to the movement of raw materials, finished products, and energy resources. Globalization has enhanced trade and the movement of goods, making shipbuilding an important strategic industry.
Ms. Vijayalakshmi Nair
Jan 2025
View PDFCHINA PREPARING FOR TROUBLE IN TIBET
Apparently apprehensive about the possibility of sudden untoward developments in Tibet, the Chinese authorities have accelerated measures to ensure stability and consolidate China’s occupation and claims over Aksai Chin, Ladakh etc.. China is also attempting to forge a ‘Himalaya initiative’ to expand its economic and diplomatic influence in the wider region. The XIVth Dalai Lama’s advancing age, decline in Chinese influence in Nepal and the rise of US influence among the Nepalese people and the growing links between the US and Nepal's think-tanks, are important contributory factors. The outreach to the Dalai Lama in mid-2024, albeit at a lower level,…
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Jan 2025
View PDFDEVELOPMENTS IN TIBET WILL IMPACT INDIA-CHINA TIES
An important, but less studied, aspect of China's military preparations are the activities in Tibet along the border with India. The nature of activities at different times obviously differ, but they do contain pointers to Beijing’s apprehensions and position on border issues, its willingness to negotiate if at all, and the level of tension at any given time in India-China bilateral relations.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Dec 2024
View PDFCHINA PREPARING COUNTER-MEASURES FOR ANTICIPATED TOUGHER U.S. SANCTIONS
Apprehending the possible return of Donald Trump as US President and a further deterioration in bilateral relations, China under Chinese President Xi Jinping has been preparing for tougher sanctions for some years now. In addition to trying to find ways around the sanctions, China’s Ministry of Commerce has since 2022, hit back at sanctions imposed by the US and EU. In fact, Trump’s nominee for US Secretary of State Mark Rubio has also been sanctioned. While Chinese officials and strategists had assessed they might be able to manage the Biden Administration and a successor Democrat Administration, they have, however, been…
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Nov 2024
View PDFSLOWING ECONOMY HAS PROMPTED CHINA'S CONCILIATORY POSTURE TOWARDS INDIA
The Chinese leadership has stepped up efforts for unfettered access to the large, and as yet untapped, Indian market since last year. This has come amid the incremental decline in imports from China by the US and EU and growing tension between the US and China. While China has not altered its aggressive policy towards Japan, the Philippines and Taiwan, it has tactically adopted a more accommodative tone towards the US and India. The tensions have aggravated the Chinese leadership’s concerns caused by its failure to arrest the steady decline of the Chinese economy.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Oct 2024
View PDFCHINA IS UNBENDING ON IMPROVING RELATIONS WITH INDIA
There is negligible prospect of improvement in India-China relations in the near future. The absence of communication at high leadership levels and China's recent protest against economic assistance to projects in Arunachal Pradesh, on the thin pretext that it is disputed, are brazen examples. In fact, they point to China expanding the areas of pressure on India.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Jul 2024
View PDFQUICK ASSESSMENT OF THE CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY’S THIRD PLENUM
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Central Committee (CC) convened its Third Plenum after an unexplained delay of almost eight months. The failure to convene the Third Plenum despite China’s steadily declining economy -- which has over 23 percent graduate unemployment, high urban and rural unemployment, rising prices and cost of living, drastically reduced revenues of the provinces and widespread dissatisfaction resulting in strikes and protests -- prompted speculation that the CCP leadership was divided on the prescription required for giving the economy the necessary fillip. Third Plenums are important as they set the country's economic policy for its 5 year…
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Jul 2024
View PDFRISING TENSION IN TAIWAN STRAIT IS CAUSE FOR CONCERN
Tension across the Taiwan Strait has risen in past weeks after the leader of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Lai Ching-te took over as Taiwan's new President. Since then the Chinese authorities have mounted psychological and military pressure on Taiwan. Beijing has issued sternly worded warnings, accompanied by personal threats, to Lai Ching-te against making statements that Beijing perceives as provocative. Tensions were raised further when Chinese President Xi Jinping told the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to be ready to invade Taiwan by its hundredth founding anniversary in 2027. On May 7, 2024, the US Central Intelligence Agency Director Bill…
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Jul 2024 (This Issue Brief was first published by Vivekananda International foundation (VIF))
View PDFPORTENDS OF THE XI-PUTIN SUMMIT IN MAY 2024
Summits between Russian President Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping are invariably closely monitored in world capitals, especially since the onset of Russia’s war with Ukraine in 2022 and the two having declared a “no limits friendship”! China is the largest country to sustain Russia’s effort to withstand Western pressure. The Summits also incrementally advance their common agenda of changing the existing world order to make it “more fair” and “equitable”. Xi Jinping has already articulated the principal features of the world order envisioned by him, namely a community of common destiny, and the Global Civilisational Initiative (GCI), Global Development…
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Jun 2024
View PDFTHE PEOPLE’S LIBERATION ARMY (PLA)’S NEW INFORMATION SUPPORT FORCE
On April 19, Chinese President Xi Jinping announced that a new People's Liberation Army (PLA) Information Support Force had been established. At the same time he announced establishment of the PLA Aerospace Support Force and PLA Cyberspace Support Force and the disbandment of the PLA Strategic Support Force (SSF). Together this constitutes the largest reorganisation of the PLA since the one effected in 2016. The reorganisation comes a month after Chinese President Xi Jinping’s speech to PLA and PAP Deputies attending the National People’s Congress (NPC) session on March 7, 2024. In this speech he emphasised the importance of using…
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Jun 2024 (This Issue Brief was first published by Vivekananda International foundation (VIF))
View PDFINITIAL ASSESSMENT OF CHINESE PRESIDENT XI JINPING’S THREE NATION EUROPEAN TOUR
Chinese President Xi Jinping, accompanied by his wife Peng Liyuan, Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) member and Director of the CCP CC General Office Cai Qi and Politburo member and Foreign Minister Wang Yi, arrived in Paris on May 5, on the first leg of his carefully crafted three-nation 5-day European tour. He was received at Orly airport by French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal. It was Xi’s first trip to Europe in five years. The countries to be visited were carefully chosen with France, the most difficult, first on Xi’s itinerary. Xi would have been encouraged by German Chancellor Scholz bending…
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
May 2024 (This Issue Brief was first published by Vivekananda International foundation (VIF))
View PDFTENSIONS SHOW IN US-CHINA TIES DURING US SECRETARY OF STATE BLINKEN’S VISIT
US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken's three day (April 24-26) visit to Shanghai and Beijing was an apparent attempt to arrest the slide in relations and simultaneously make clear the US 'red lines'. Since Biden became US President, Blinken is the senior-most US official to visit the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Nevertheless, the visit coincided with the US authorising a US$ 90 billion aid package to Ukraine and Taiwan. China too used the visit to set out its 'red lines', restate its ambitions, and signal that it has serious reservations about US claims that it wants to stabilise relations…
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Apr 2024 (This Issue Brief was first published by Vivekananda International foundation (VIF))
View PDFCHINA’S 14TH NATIONAL PEOPLE’S CONGRESS SESSION GIVES NEW DIRECTION TO PLA
The plenary sessions of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), the top political advisory body, and the National People’s Congress (NPC), China’s version of a parliament, which opened in Beijing’s Great Hall of the People on March 4 and March 5 respectively amid high security provided a fresh thrust to the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). The observations by the NPC deputies and CPPCC delegates give some insight into the mood and thinking of the Chinese authorities. The NPC session (March 5-11) signalled that Xi Jinping had still further consolidated his stature as China’s preeminent leader and more firmly stamped…
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Mar 2024 (This Issue Brief was first published by Vivekananda International foundation (VIF))
View PDFCHINESE PRESIDENT XI JINPING BOLSTERS POSITION AT NATIONAL PEOPLE’S CONGRESS
The plenary sessions of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), the top political advisory body, and the National People’s Congress (NPC), China’s version of a parliament, both important events in China’s political calendar opened in Beijing’s Great Hall of the People on March 4 and March 5 respectively amid high security. The observations by the NPC deputies and CPPCC delegates give some insight into the mood and thinking of the Chinese authorities. This NPC session (March 4-11) signalled that Xi Jinping had still further consolidated his stature as China’s preeminent leader and more firmly stamped the Chinese Communist Party…
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Mar 2024 (This Issue Brief was first published by Vivekananda International foundation (VIF))
View PDFCHINA IS RAISING TENSIONS IN THE TAIWAN STRAIT
Tension across the Taiwan Strait has increased since Taiwan's pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) won the Presidential elections for the third consecutive time in January 2024. The victory of the DPP's Lai Ching-te clearly signalled that the people of Taiwan do not want to reunify, or more correctly, be merged with the communist People's Republic of China. After a silence of over 25 hours during which Beijing made no comment on Lai Ching-te’s victory, it started flexing its military muscle and began sending large numbers of Navy warships and Air Force aircraft in the Taiwan Strait and around Taiwan, thereby…
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Mar 2024 (This Issue Brief was first published by Vivekananda International foundation (VIF))
View PDFXI JINPING REINFORCES SECURITY APPARATUS AMIDST GROWING POPULAR DISCONTENT
The slowing economy and increasing joblessness have contributed to the growing popular discontent in China. This has affected China’s entrepreneurs and there are indications that discontent has spread also to the ‘princelings’ and cadres in the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). The uncovering recently of corruption in the senior echelons of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and punishments to those found guilty will add to the number of discontented elements. While Chinese President Xi Jinping and the CCP leadership have been increasingly emphasising security and stability, Xi Jinping has simultaneously been strengthening China’s security apparatus.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Jan 2024 (This Issue Brief was first published by Vivekananda International foundation (VIF))
View PDFCHINESE PRESIDENT XI JINPING BESET BY GROWING POPULAR DISCONTENT
Faced with increasing popular discontent, Chinese President Xi Jinping and the Chinese leadership have since the 19th Party Congress in 2017 been focussed on trying to assert the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)’s pre-eminence in all sectors and ensure social stability. The legitimacy of the CCP and its continuance as the sole ruling party of China are the top priorities. There are various indicators that confirm popular discontent in China, including within the CCP, is rising. This has the potential to adversely impact the CCP’s leading role and Chinese President Xi Jinping’s position. China’s security apparatus has consequently been appreciably increased…
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Jan 2024 (This Issue Brief was first published by Vivekananda International foundation (VIF))
View PDFINDICATION OF DISARRAY IN PLA AND IMMINENT ‘RECTIFICATION’ CAMPAIGN
The senior echelons of China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) appear to be in disarray. The unexplained long absences of Central Military Commission (CMC) Vice Chairman General Zhang Youxia and sudden removal of Defence Minister Li Shangfu, both with close family ties to Chinese President Xi Jinping, has added to the state of uncertainty. Many senior officers have also in recent months been removed on charges of corruption or violation of political discipline. In addition, a usually reliable report claims that the PLA has conveyed to Xi Jinping that it is not ready for an invasion of Taiwan. It is almost…
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Jan 2024
View PDFTIBET: THE FULCRUM OF CHINA’S STRATEGIC POLICY IN THE HIMALAYAS
China is positioning Tibet as the fulcrum for its strategic policy in the sensitive Himalayan region thus directly and adversely impacting India. Beijing appears to have assessed that it has sufficiently calmed the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR) to feel adequately secure in opening Tibet up wider for interaction with foreign countries. China’s foreign policy objectives are aimed at enveloping the Himalayan states in the region, which are on India’s northern periphery, into a China-dominated grouping. While it will be wrapped in the garb of preserving the ecology and environment, the main objective will be to advance Beijing’s strategic agenda. Two…
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Nov 2023 (This Issue Brief was first published by Vivekananda International foundation (VIF))
View PDFCHINA’S CENTRAL FINANCE AND ECONOMIC AFFAIRS WORK CONFERENCE REVEALS EMPHASIS ON SECURITY AND DEVELOPMENT
China’s long awaited Central Financial Work Conference was held in Beijing on October 30-31, 2023, and was the first held since the establishment of the Central Financial Commission and the Central Financial Working Committee. With the decline in China's economic growth and little prospects for its revival, there was expectation among Chinese economists, provincial government officials and others that the important once-in-five year Central Finance and Economic Work Conference would take steps for stimulating and reviving the economy. They expected that measures to stimulate the economy would include infusing large sums into specific sectors, like real estate. While the conference…
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Nov 2023 (This Issue Brief was first published by Vivekananda International foundation (VIF))
View PDFCHINA-US: LIMITED RAPPROCHEMENT AFOOT?
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi arrived in Washington on a two-day (October 26-28, 2023) visit after a telling interval of five years. Official readouts of the visit indicate some progress during Wang Yi’s visit. Important were the disclosures that consultations on maritime affairs and arms control would resume and Chinese President Xi Jinping would visit San Francisco this November for the APEC Summit -- this will be the second meeting between the two since US President Biden assumed office.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Oct 2023
View PDFUNUSUAL DEVELOPMENTS IN CHINA
The interest of governments and observers of China have got heightened with some unusual developments taking place in China particularly since the past few months. These have included the "removal" of high Chinese Communist Party (CCP) officials, purges of high officials of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) and changes in Chinese President Xi Jinping’s work pattern. Countries are also concerned at the implications of China's deteriorating economic situation.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Oct 2023 (This Issue Brief was first published by Vivekananda International foundation (VIF))
View PDFCHINA’S DETERIORATING ECONOMY HAS CREATED INSTABILITY FOR XI JINPING
China’s economy is in dire straits. While assessments of China’s economic situation by foreign banks and economists is worrying, the views of some Chinese economists are even more pessimistic. They question the Chinese government’s projected economic growth rate of 5 per cent and say that growth is really negative and nearer minus 2-3 percent! Close scrutiny of China’s official media too reveals a worrying picture with little prospect of an economic recovery in the near term. Chinese President Xi Jinping, who has focussed on dissemination of Xi Jinping’s Thoughts through his books, has been slow in addressing the economy.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Sep 2023 (This Issue Brief was first published by Vivekananda International foundation (VIF))
View PDFFORMER CHINESE FOREIGN MINISTER QIN GANG’S ABSENCE POINTS TO DISCORD IN SENIOR ECHELONS OF THE CCP
The decision taken by stern faced members of China’s National People's Congress Standing Committee (NPCSC) at an emergency meeting on July 25 to replace Qin Gang as Foreign Minister with his predecessor Wang Yi was very unusual. The NPCSC did not, however, divest him of his rank as State Councilor though it is empowered to do so. The NPCSC resolution also pointedly stated that Xi Jinping had signed-off on the decision to replace him as Foreign Minister. The NPCSC decision was, incidentally, taken when Wang Yi was attending a BRICS conference in South Africa. Regardless of whether it is finally…
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
July 2023 (This Issue Brief was first published by Vivekananda International foundation (VIF))
View PDFXI JINPING’S LATEST CAMPAIGN : ‘THEME EDUCATION’
Within months of securing a third term at the 20th Party Congress last October and successfully packing the Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) with loyalists, Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Central Committee (CC) General Secretary Xi Jinping launched a new political education campaign – his sixth -- on April 3, 2023. It is the largest, most vigorous and intense ideological campaign since Xi Jinping took office in October 2012 and has penetrated the CCP, People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and Government. This new “themed education” programme aims at embedding ‘Xi Jinping Thought’ into the minds of CCP members and cadres all the way…
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
June 2023 (This Issue Brief was first published by Vivekananda International foundation (VIF))
View PDFASSESSMENT OF US SECRETARY OF STATE BLINKEN’S TWO-DAY VISIT TO CHINA
The Western media, in sharp contrast to China’s tightly controlled official media, seems to have gushed at the apparent success of US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken's visit to China on June 18-19. China’s official media, in contrast, afforded low-key coverage to the visit, which they pointed out had been sought by the US. Successive articles in China’s official media have cautioned that the US was advertising a so-called desire to improve ties when in reality it wanted to contain China. The special, warm welcome accorded to Indian Prime Minister Modi and the speeches during his recent visit to the…
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
June 2023 (This Issue Brief was first published by Vivekananda International foundation (VIF))
View PDFINDICATIONS OF ELEVATED MILITARY PREPARATIONS IN TIBET
Monitoring developments in the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR) has become even more important after India's 4057-kms Line of Actual Control (LAC) with China became active along its entire length since at least July 2021, when the clash at Galwan Valley resulted in the deaths of Indian soldiers. Activities of the TAR authorities increase noticeably as they sensitise their population while preparing for any initiative or periods of tension, whether military or otherwise. Over at least the past month the higher TAR authorities have been noticed paying unusually increased attention to the border prefectures and counties.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
May 2023 (This Issue Brief was first published by Vivekananda International foundation (VIF))
View PDFCHINESE FOREIGN MINISTER HIGHLIGHTS MAIN FEATURES OF CHINA’S FOREIGN POLICY
The latest (May 16) issue of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)’s leading theoretical fortnightly magazine ‘Qiu Shi’ (Seeking Truth) included a lengthy article by Chinese State Councillor and Foreign Minister Qin Gang. In it Qin Gang quite explicitly, but without naming, criticised the US and West and outlined China’s global foreign policy agenda. Qin Gang is a close associate and protégé of Chinese President Xi Jinping and for years was in charge of managing Xi’s foreign policy schedule. Just 57 years old, Qin Gang’s rise has been rapid and he is well positioned to make it to the Politburo at…
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
May 2023 (This Issue Brief was first published by Vivekananda International foundation (VIF))
View PDFRISING TENSIONS IN THE TAIWAN STRAIT
As January 2024 -- the date for Taiwan's national elections -- draws closer, it is certain that China will be a factor in the elections. Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen's stop-overs in New York and Los Angeles and meeting with US House Majority Leader McCarthy on April 5 amid steadily escalating Cross Strait tensions has also provoked "robust counter-measures" by China.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
April 2023
View PDFCHINA'S NEW LEADERSHIP IS PREPARING FOR A MILITARY THREAT
Amid the flurry of documents submitted and appointments confirmed at the recent plenary sessions of the National People's Congress (NPC) -- China’s version of a parliament -- and the Chinese People's Consultative Conference (CPPCC) -- China’s top political advisory body -- there are indications that China’s leadership is rather anxious at the adverse and deteriorating international environment that China faces. The failure of US Secretary of State Blinken to travel to China because of the Chinese spy balloon episode revealed not only the poor state of Sino-US relations but the deep suspicion of China in the US political establishment and…
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Mar 2023 (This Issue Brief was first published by Vivekananda International foundation (VIF))
View PDFCHINA'S BIG TWO SESSIONS’ CONFIRM XI JINPING AS CHINA’S PRE-EMINENT UNRIVALLED LEADER
The plenary sessions of the 14th National People's Congress (NPC) -- China's version of a parliament -- and 14th Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) -- China's top political advisory body -- that concluded on March 13 were, as anticipated, a success for Xi Jinping. Having again been elected as General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Central Committee (CC) at the 20th Party Congress last October, 2952 Deputies to the NPC unanimously re-elected Xi Jinping for a third term as President of China. In his first speech after the NPC session, Xi Jinping exulted that he was honoured…
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Mar 2023 (This Issue Brief was first published by Vivekananda International foundation (VIF))
View PDFXI JINPING TIGHTENS HIS GRIP ON THE SECURITY APPARATUS
Moving rapidly after the 20th Party Congress (October 6-12, 2022) approved his policies and endorsed him for a third term, Chinese President Xi Jinping has over the past year and a half further tightened his grip on the Party, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) and especially the security apparatus. Since last year Xi Jinping has increased the country’s priority for security, as seen at the Politburo study session on January 31 when security was placed on equal footing with development. He has enhanced attention to strengthening his grip on the Ministry of State Security (MoSS) and Ministry of Public Security…
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Feb 2023 (This Issue Brief was first published by Vivekananda International foundation (VIF))
View PDFXI JINPING’S LEADERSHIP APPEARS TO BE FACING OPPOSITION’'
From the time Xi Jinping made his ambition for a third term clear, and for months before the 20th Party Congress (October 6-12, 2022), China’s official media has been publishing a series of articles highlighting the importance of safeguarding Xi Jinping’s position as the ‘core of the Chinese Communist Party Central Committee’. They have emphasised that Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Central Committee (CC)’s leadership were essential if China was to achieve its modernisation and reunification with Taiwan.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Feb 2023 (This Issue Brief was first published by Vivekananda International foundation (VIF))
View PDFXI JINPING PREPARING TO INITIATE ANOTHER 'PARTY RECTIFICATION'
Since Chinese President Xi Jinping withdrew the stringent zero-Covid restrictions overnight and eased the campaign against China’s tech platforms, there has been considerable speculation in the international media to suggest that Xi Jinping had been weakened by the popular protests. A few observers suggested that some members of the Politburo or its Standing Committee had together urged Xi Jinping to amend the policies. There are, however, no indications that point to a weakening of Xi Jinping’s power or authority.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Jan 2023 (This Issue Brief was first published by Vivekananda International foundation (VIF))
View PDFCHINESE PRESIDENT JIANG ZEMIN’S DEMISE REVEALS EXTENT OF DISCONTENT IN CHINA
Recent events have confirmed the considerable subterranean discontent in China. The death of former Chinese President Jiang Zemin, who was handpicked by the late Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping to steer the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the country in the immediate aftermath of the Tiananmen massacre in 1989, has occurred at a critical time for Chinese President Xi Jinping. It complicates an already difficult situation when numerous cities across the country have witnessed protests against the stringent restrictions to implement the zeroCovid policy and the economic situation is worsening.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Dec 2022 (This Issue Brief was first published by Vivekananda International foundation (VIF) on 22 December)
View PDFTHE PEOPLE’S LIBERATION ARMY (PLA) AND CHINA’S 20TH PARTY CONGRESS
The People's Liberation Army (PLA) is the sword arm of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). It has been the strongest pillar of the Party and has had a presence and voice in the Party's highest echelons since almost the very founding of the CCP. This is reflected at the Party Congress held every five years where the Work Report of the Government approved by the Party also sets out the task for the PLA for the coming five years. For example, Xi Jinping set a timeline for China’s defence modernization at the 19th Party Congress in 2017
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Nov 2022 (This Issue Brief was first published by Vivekananda International foundation (VIF))
View PDFASSESSMENT OF CHINA’S 20TH PARTY CONGRESS
The 20th Party Congress (October 6-22, 2022) is a watershed event in China’s political history and marks a new phase. It exemplified Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Central Committee (CC) General Secretary Xi Jinping’s absolute control and firm grip on the CCP. From selection of members of the Politburo and its Standing Committee to finalisation of the Work Report presented to the 20th Party Congress, all carried Xi Jinping’s firm imprimatur. Xi Jinping has pushed China into becoming a one-man totalitarian state.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Oct 2022 (This Issue Brief was first published by Vivekananda International foundation (VIF))
View PDFXI JINPING AND THE PORTENDS FOR HIS THIRD TERM
The recent rumour that Xi Jinping had been placed under house arrest, prompted by wishful thinking rather than fact, nonetheless confirmed that Xi Jinping is now China’s central figure nearly as much as Mao and Deng Xiaoping once were!
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Oct 2022 (This Issue Brief was first published by Vivekananda International foundation (VIF))
View PDFSIGNS OF WESTERN THEATRE COMMAND’S IMPORTANCE BEFORE UPCOMING 20TH PARTY CONGRESS
As the sword-arm of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), the People's Liberation Army (PLA) has enjoyed pre-eminent status as its third pillar since the founding of the People's Republic of China. However, as the old 'Revolutionary' leaders began fading and new leaders without links to the PLA began taking over, China’s leadership began placing restraints on the PLA's political clout in order to maintain the CCP's supremacy and authority over the PLA. It's membership and, therefore authority, in the CCP's Politburo was gradually reduced to two.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Sep 2022 (This Issue Brief was first published by Vivekananda International foundation (VIF))
View PDFXI JINPING APPEARS SET FOR THE NEXT TERM AT CHINA’S HELM
After a fortnight’s absence from public events, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Chinese Premier Li Keqiang appeared in the Liaoning and Guangdong provinces respectively. Their absence since July 31 and appearance subsequently on August 16 confirmed that the secretive conclave of senior veteran cadres at the Beidaihe seaside resort had concluded after a fortnight. None of the Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) members were noticed either during this period. The extended duration of the Beidaihe conclave, which normally lasts 8-10 days, has sparked some speculation in China. So also has the fact that instead of the other PBSC members appearing earlier…
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Aug 2022 (This Issue Brief was first published by Vivekananda International foundation (VIF))
View PDFXI JINPING BEGINS APPOINTING LOYALISTS TO KEY POSTS
The political situation in China is becoming volatile as the 20th Party Congress draws near and rumours of imminent purges circulating in Beijing gain momentum. The absence of a ‘Revolutionary’ veteran founding leader with unchallenged authority to decide on leadership appointments has added to the uncertainty. Surviving leaders like Song Ping are over 103 now and frail. The failed bids for power in 2012 by the now incarcerated former Politburo (PB) member and ‘princeling’ Bo Xilai and incarcerated Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) member and Security Czar Zhou Yongkang continue to haunt the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Jul 2022 (This Issue Brief was first published by Vivekananda International foundation (VIF))
View PDFINITIAL ANALYSIS OF LEAKED VIDEO OF CHINESE WAR PREPAREDNESS EXERCISE IN GUANGDONG
The timing of the 'leak' of the video of a ‘War Preparedness Mobilisation Exercise’ convened by the Guangdong Province Communist Party Committee on May 14, 2022 is interesting. It is yet unclear whether the video was deliberately ‘leaked’ by the Chinese as part of psywar, or it was an unauthorised recording of the meeting by a disgruntled People's Liberation Army (PLA) officer. It will nonetheless certainly be carefully analysed by China’s neighbours and competitors.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Jun 2022 (This Issue Brief was first published by Vivekananda International foundation (VIF))
View PDFTROUBLED TIMES AHEAD FOR CHINA AND XI JINPING
China is headed for a difficult period. A variety of factors have converged to make this a potentially volatile period. With barely six months to go for the crucial 20th Party Congress, it will be a period of particularly heightened concern for Chinese President Xi Jinping. This especially as he has been in charge of the economic and foreign policy portfolios, both of where major problems loom.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
May 2022 (This Issue Brief was first published by Vivekananda International foundation (VIF))
View PDFRUSSIA-CHINA: IMPLICATIONS OF THE UNEQUAL RELATIONSHIP
A brief background of world events will help set the context for assessing this relationship. Without delving into why Russia did what it did in Ukraine, over the past few years we have witnessed major powers attempting to consolidate or expand their territory – as in the case of China – or their areas of influence.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
May 2022 (This Issue Brief was first published by Vivekananda International foundation (VIF))
View PDFCHINESE CRITICISMS OF CHINA’S SUPPORT TO RUSSIA’S INVASION OF UKRAINE
After the February 4 Summit between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Beijing and 18 days after Russia invaded Ukraine, China has not wavered in its support of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine despite urgings by the US and West. Differing views are, however, now beginning to surface internally.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Mar 2022
View PDFCHINESE ASSESSMENTS OF THE U.S. AND WEST AND SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA
After the February 4 summit between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Beijing on the side-lines of the Beijing Winter Olympics, where Putin briefed Xi Jinping -- or certainly gave him at least a fair insight into his plans for Ukraine -- China has been unwavering in its support to Russia. This despite the US repeatedly urging China, including as recently as March 5, to join the US and West in their sanctions against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The Chinese official media, which doesn’t use terms like ‘invasion’ to describe Russian action in Ukraine, and has…
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Mar 2022
View PDFCHINA’S EFFORTS TO ERASE THE DALAI LAMA’S INFLUENCE AND PROMOTE PANCHEN LAMA ARE YIELDING MINIMAL RESULTS’
Chinese President Xi Jinping has increased efforts in recent months to try and erase the XIVth Dalai Lama’s influence inside Tibet and among the growing number of adherents to Buddhism elsewhere in China. This suggests an apparent urgency to ensure that the exiled Dalai Lama’s reincarnation, when the situation arises, will be nurtured by tutors compliant with the Chinese communist regime and later remain in the firm grip of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). The spectre of two Dalai Lamas -- one quite outside Beijing’s control -- like presently in the case of the Panchen Lama, though the one approved…
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Feb 2022 (This Issue Brief was first published by Vivekananda International foundation (VIF))
View PDFBRIEF REVIEW OF THE RECENT XI-PUTIN SUMMIT
The tension building on Ukraine’s border, where approximately 130,000 Russian troops are poised for a possible military offensive and the US and West are arrayed against Russia, provided an ideal setting for the Russian and Chinese Presidents to display their close ties. It ensured that world attention would be focussed on their first meeting in person in slightly over 2 years. The Beijing Winter Olympics, which the US, UK, Australia and many European nations boycotted to protest the human rights violations of Uyghurs in the Xinjiang-Uyghur Autonomous Region thereby putting China under pressure, provided the perfect opportunity.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Feb 2022 (This Issue Brief was first published by Vivekananda International foundation (VIF))
View PDFBORDER SECURITY IS RECEIVING HIGHER SALIENCE IN TIBET
Over the past year, the Chinese authorities have increased emphasis on border security along the Sino-Indian Line of Actual Control (LAC). There have been a number of visits by senior TAR officials and TAR Security and Propaganda teams to villages in the border areas. This has become more pronounced after the visits by Chinese President Xi Jinping and Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) member and Chairman of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) Wang Yang to Tibet in July and August 2021 respectively. Xi Jinping’s meeting in Lhasa with officers of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) of the Tibet Military…
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Feb 2022 (This Issue Brief was first published by Vivekananda International foundation (VIF))
View PDFXI JINPING’S UPGRADING OF THE PLA AND IMPLICATION FOR INDIA
China’s perception of its external environs has been changing incrementally since Xi Jinping took over in 2012 as General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), Chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC) and China’s President. Recent descriptions in official documents and statements by Chinese leaders reveal growing concern that China’s external environment is becoming unpredictable and no longer as peaceful as earlier. India has begun to figure in these statements. The changing perception, which coincides with Xi Jinping’s declared ambition of making China a strong and powerful nation, will shape the People’s Liberation Army (PLA)’s preparedness.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Jan 2022 (This Issue Brief was first published by Vivekananda International foundation (VIF))
View PDFCHINA’S CENTRAL ECONOMIC WORK CONFERENCE FLAGS THE DIFFICULTIES AHEAD
China’s important annual Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing from December 8 – 10, 2021. The conference is an important forum where Chinese leaders map out the country’s economic priorities for the coming year and when analysts can gauge the state of China’s economy.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Jan 2022 (This Issue Brief was first published by Vivekananda International foundation (VIF))
View PDFVIEWS OF CHINESE EXPERTS ON SINO-US RELATIONS
As China’s economic situation becomes more difficult and its aggressive policies increase tensions in its neighbourhood, the Chinese leadership is concerned at the turn that its relations with the US are taking. This has generated renewed discussion on ways to try and mend the relationship, still acknowledged as the most significant of China’s bilateral ties and one that has immensely facilitated China’s rise.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Jan 2022 (This Issue Brief was first published by Vivekananda International foundation (VIF) on January 12, New Delhi)
View PDFSOME CHINESE ASSESSMENTS OF INDIA'S GEO-ECONOMIC AND FOREIGN POLICIES
A good indication of Chinese thinking on India is discernible from the Chinese print and social media. While China’s English-language publications, like China Daily and Beijing Review, are intended for the English-speaking foreign audience, the Chinese-language media especially caters to the domestic readership. Articles published in Chinese-language publications usually do not appear in the English-language publications and are intended for specific professional audiences and academics. In this context, articles commenting on India --published now as a steady daily criticism -- in the Global Times target the Indian audience. Owned by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)’s official mouthpiece ‘People’s Daily’, the…
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Dec 2021 (This Issue Brief was first published by Vivekananda International foundation (VIF) on December 29, New Delhi)
View PDFXI JINPING'S NEW SECURITY SATRAPS
China’s powerful security apparatus has become even more important for Xi Jinping as he makes a bid for a third term at China’s helm at the upcoming 20th Party Congress in 2022. The unease and dissatisfaction simmering just below the surface make it imperative that the security is unquestioningly loyal to Xi.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Dec 2021 (This Issue Brief was first published by Vivekananda International foundation (VIF) on December 20, New Delhi)
View PDFPURGES IN SECURITY APPARATUS INDICATE XI JINPING FACES RESISTANCE’
The months till the 20th Party Congress scheduled for late next year are fraught with risk for China and its neighbours. It is a particularly crucial year for Chinese President Xi Jinping, who is trying to secure a third term, unprecedented since Mao Zedong, at the 20th Party Congress. At the same time there are signsof enhanced political activity, albeit subterranean, which suggest that Xi Jinping's opponents are also active,thereby raising the stakes.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Nov 2021 (This Issue Brief was first published by Vivekananda International foundation (VIF) on November 24, New Delhi)
View PDFXI JINPING’S NEW SLOGAN OF COMMON PROSPERITY IS WORRYING PEOPLE
‘Common Prosperity’ has become the new buzzword in the People's Republic of China since August 2021. The term provokes varying emotions ranging from fear and apprehension to a sense that the government is finally addressing the rising Gini coefficient and reining in the private entrepreneurs who have become multi-billionaires. Chinese President Xi Jinping, who mentioned common prosperity in a speech on August 17, definitely had in mind the steadily widening income disparities, the growing urban-rural income divide and the concentration of enormous wealth in the hands of just a small handful of people. While his announcement will have been welcomed…
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Oct 2021 (This Issue Brief was first published by Vivekananda International foundation (VIF), New Delhi)
View PDFIMPLICATIONS OF RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN PLA’S WESTERN THEATRE COMMAND
The Western Theatre Command (WTC) is the largest of China’s five Theatre Commands and exercises operational jurisdiction over the country’s currently ‘active’ borders with India and Afghanistan. Particularly since the People’s Liberation Army (PLA)’s military manoeuvre against India in early May 2020, which caught the Indian armed forces by surprise, and consequent onset of military tension along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), the Chinese leadership has been paying special attention to the Western Theatre Command (WTC). It has raised its inter-se grading among Theatre Commands and brought the WTC on par with the Eastern Theatre Command, which is ranked…
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Sep 2021 (This Issue Brief was first published by the Centre for Air Power Studies, New Delhi)
View PDFCHINA’S COMMUNIST PARTY CELEBRATES ITS CENTENARY – WHAT NEXT?
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP)’s centenary celebrations were extensively covered in the Chinese media. Xi Jinping, who holds China’s three top positions of CCP General Secretary, Chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC) and Chinese President, delivered an important speech on the occasion on July 1, 2021. His speech provided a few pointers about future plans including an indication that he intends to remain in power. His speech affirmed that the Party will adhere to the prescription Xi Jinping gave in 2017: “the party, government, military, civilian and academic, east, west, south, north and center, the party leads everything”.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Sep 2021 (It was first published by Vivekananda International foundation (VIF), New Delhi)
View PDFCPPCC CHAIRMAN WANG YANG'S VISIT TO TIBET AUTONOMOUS REGION IS IMPORTANT
The 3-day (August 18-21, 2021) visit to Lhasa by Wang Yang, Politburo Standing Committee member and Chairman of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), at the head of a 22-member delegation is important. The visit follows that by Chinese President Xi Jinping in late July and, together, the two are intended to give a substantive push to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leadership’s plan to effect a cultural and socio-economic transformation of Tibet.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Aug 2021
View PDFCHINA INTENSIFIES CAMPAIGN TO ASSIMILATE TIBETANS INTO MAINSTREAM HAN CULTURE
Tibet appears poised to initiate a vigorous campaign aimed at assimilating the Tibetan ethnic minority into the Han national mainstream. An important speech by Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR) Party Secretary Wu Yingjie, at a meeting of the District Party Committee Ideology and Propaganda and Ideological Work Leading Group in Lhasa on June 21, signals that such a campaign is imminent.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Aug 2021 (It was first published by Vivekananda International foundation (VIF) on August 12, 2021)
View PDFXI JINPING’S VISIT TO TIBET IS IMPORTANT AND HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR INDIA
Chinese President Xi Jinping arrived in the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR) at Nyingchi’s Mainling Airport on July 21 at the start of a two-day (July 21-23) visit, without prior public notice. The visit, which comes shortly before the 70th anniversary of the “peaceful liberation” of Tibet, is important. With this visit Chinese President Xi Jinping has given impetus to the initiatives on ethnic unity, promoting Mandarin as the primary language in ethnic schools in TAR, adapting Tibetan Buddhism to socialism with Chinese characteristics and combatting separatism, etc.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Jul 2021 (It was first posted by the Vivekananda International foundation (VIF) on July 29, 2021)
View PDFXI JINPING’S CENTENARY SPEECH EXUDES CONFIDENCE AND DETERMINATION
Centenaries are celebrated around the world. These are occasions for special celebration when it is the centenary of the ruling political party, as well as an opportunity for it to share its assessment of the journey thus far and give a broad sense of direction for the future. Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Central Committee (CC) General Secretary Xi Jinping did just that in his speech.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Jul 2021 (The Issue Brief was first published by the Centre for Airpower Studies)
View PDFXI JINPING IS TAKING STEPS TO AVOID ANY SURPRISE BY THE OPPOSITION
It would be unwise today to discount reports of opposition to Chinese President Xi Jinping. This especially since opposition to him burst into the open first in 2017-2018 when Xi Jinping abolished term limits for the top Party posts at the 18th Party Congress. Dissatisfaction with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and Xi Jinping personally, surfaced again in 2020, when the authorities mishandled the outbreak of the Covid pandemic. The period leading to the 20th Party Congress, crucial for Xi Jinping if he wants to continue to lead China, is sensitive.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Jun 2021 (It was first issued by the Vivekananda International Foundation (VIF))
View PDFFEARS OF ‘COLOUR REVOLUTION’ IN PEOPLE’S LIBERATION ARMY (PLA)
China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) is the sword arm of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). It's recruits swear an oath of loyalty to the Party. The evening that Xi Jinping took over China’s top three positions of General Secretary of the CCP Central Committee (CC), Chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC) and China's President, he convened an enlarged meeting of the CMC where he declared that henceforth the single determining criteria for promotion for PLA personnel would be their political reliability.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Jun 2021
View PDFXI JINPING AND CCP LEADERSHIP WARY OF COLOUR REVOLUTION BEFORE 20TH PARTY CONGRESS
Anxiety in the leadership echelons of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) of the possibility of a "colour revolution" in China has transparently risen in the past month or so. While Chinese cadres, including Xi Jinping, have harboured such apprehensions since the disintegration of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union (CPSU) in 1991, these concerns have increased markedly since the rapid deterioration in relations with the United States.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
May 2021
View PDFSIGNS OF DISQUIET IN CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY AS 20th CONGRESS DRAWS NEAR
Amid efforts by Chinese President Xi Jinping to marshal resources to imprint his image on people's minds as one among those in the pantheon of China's Greats, there are signs of possible disquiet in the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
May 2021
View PDFCHINA’S COMMUNIST PARTY REVISES ITS HISTORY YET AGAIN IN TIME FOR USE BY XI JINPING
History and the power of the narrative have always been important to authoritarian regimes. Communist regimes have elevated their importance by using them to indoctrinate entire generations with sanitised versions of events authorised by those in power. Under Chinese President Xi Jinping the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has further refined the impact of the narrative by using propaganda and technology to keep the media and social media in check. Since the last few years, China’s security apparatus has also been co-opted to try and prevent western ‘liberal thinking’ from infiltrating and swaying China’s students, academics and intellectuals.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Apr 2021 (It was first issued by the Vivekananda International Foundation (VIF) on April 29, 2021)
View PDFWILL CHINA’S AMBITIONS WITH IRAN MATERIALISE?
Given the rising US-China tensions, Beijing and Washington are both trying to consolidate their relationship with other important countries. China receiving Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov just prior to Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi embarking on a tour to the Middle East exemplifies this. The efforts have gained momentum after the meeting between Chinese Politburo member Yang Jiechi and Foreign Minister Wang Yi and US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan at Anchorage, Alaska, earlier this year.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Apr 2021 (It was first published by the Centre for Air Power Studies (CAPS), New Delhi.)
View PDFCHINA-PAKISTAN STRATEGIC NEXUS: IMPLICATIONS FOR INDIA
The growing China-Pakistan nexus raises the threat to India. Their strategic and territorial interests have been cemented by the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). With the flow of Chinese military power into Pakistan, China veritably straddles India, with its armed forces present on the our northern, eastern and western borders. This not only raises the real spectre of a ‘two-front’ war, but positions China to play a role in Kashmir and the region. Both countries must therefore be viewed as potential threats.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Apr 2021 (The Issue Brief was first issued by the Vivekananda International Foundation)
View PDFTIBET GOVERNMENT CHAIRMAN PROJECTS THAT TIBET IS HEADED FOR MAJOR CHANGES
The People's Daily on March 25, 2021, published a lengthy 3975-character article authored by Che Dalha (in Chinese: Qi Zala), Chairman of the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR). Che Dalha’s important article, which included nine mentions of Xi Jinping, predictably focuses on activities in Tibet, but makes explicitly clear that the Tibetans are headed for a difficult period.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Mar 2021 (The Issue Brief was first issued by the Vivekananda International Foundation)
View PDFCHINA HAS JUST RAISED THE LEVEL OF THREAT FOR INDIA
Capitals around the world have undoubtedly carefully monitored the recently concluded plenary sessions (March 4 - 11, 2021) of China’s National People’s Congress (NPC) and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), popularly referred to as the ‘Lianghui’, or ‘Big Two’. For India, among the documents approved by the NPC Plenary session, one merits especially close attention.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Mar 2021 (The Issue Brief was first posted by the Vivekananda International Foundation on March 31, 2021)
View PDFHIGHLIGHTS OF CHINESE PREMIER LI KEQIANG'S GOVERNMENT WORK REPORT PRESENTED TO NPC AND CPPCC DEPUTIES ON MARCH 5, 2021
Chinese Premier Li Keqiang presented a 36-page Report on the Work of the Government to the NPC session on March 5, 2021. Delegates to the CPPCC, among others, attended the session and will discuss the Report but not vote on it. The Government Work Report, the draft of which had been discussed and approved at the Politburo meeting chaired by Chinese President Xi Jinping, contained 13 references to Xi Jinping.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Mar 2021
View PDFQUICK GLIMPSE INTO CHINA'S UPCOMING ANNUAL 'BIG TWO' SESSIONS
With just a couple of weeks to go before China’s ‘Big Two’ -- the popular name for the plenary sessions of China’s version of a parliament, the National People’s Congress (NPC) and the top political advisory body, the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) – there are no signs of any easing in the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)’s efforts to promote Chinese communist ideology. The deliberations at the NPC and CPPCC sessions will reveal China’s priorities for this year and the longer term. The Reports are expected to bear the unmistakable imprimatur of Xi Jinping.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Feb 2021 (This Issue Brief was first published by Vivekananda International Foundation)
View PDFCHINA IS REPLACING ETHNIC LANGUAGES WITH MANDARIN
Wary of efforts by the US and West to bring about the collapse of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), particularly as memories of the disintegration of the erstwhile Soviet Union and collapse of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union (CPSU) still remain sharply etched, Chinese President Xi Jinping has been focussed on strengthening the CCP to ensure it retains its monopoly on power. Xi Jinping has also long had an interest in united front work and ethnic minority issues and in 2017 took over as head of the powerful Central Leading Small Group on United Front Work, which exercises…
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Feb 2021 (This Issue Brief was first published by Vivekananda International Foundation)
View PDFCHINESE REACTIONS TO U.S. PRESIDENT TRUMP’S POLICIES ON TAIWAN
Recent US pronouncements regarding Taiwan have annoyed Beijing and the US’ plans to send its Ambassador to the UN, Ms. Kelly Craft, to Taiwan provoked a sharp response. Hers would have been the first trip at this level since 1968. Though Craft's visit, which was scheduled to start on January 13 was abruptly cancelled at the last minute, she did later have a virtual meeting with Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Jan 2021
View PDFXI JINPING FURTHER STRENGTHENS CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY'S 'MAGIC WEAPON' - THE UNITED FRONT WORK DEPARTMENT
China is making efforts to arrest the slide in US-China relations and lower temperatures after Joe Biden takes over as President on January 20. In addition to Chinese Politburo member and former Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi’s plans for visiting Washington this week, a Chinese trade delegation is likely to travel to the US shortly. Confirming that China will use all the levers it possibly can, Chinese President Xi Jinping on January 6 wrote to Howard Schultz, Honorary Chairman of the Board of Directors of Starbucks Corporation of the United States, emphasising that China "will provide a broader space for companies…
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Jan 2021 (It was first published by Vivekanand India Foundation) (It was first published by Vivekanand India Foundation)
View PDFAN AUTHORITATIVE CHINESE ASSESSMENT OF HOW CHINA VIEWS INDIA
Far from any signs of an end to the military stand-off between India and China, or that tensions between the two will ease, China’s mood towards India is hardening. There are indications that China sees the current confrontation as the beginning of a period of sustained, protracted pressure on India. The military confrontation in the Himalayas is likely to escalate, with a high possibility of clashes occurring periodically commencing from Spring this year. These could include sharp, swift military actions.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Dec 2020 (It was first published by Vivekanand India Foundation)
View PDFCHINA DEBATES POLICY TOWARDS U.S. AS BIDEN'S ADMINISTRATION TAKES OVER
China’s leadership echelons have been very apprehensive about anti-China actions the Trump Administration might take in its last days. Zhou Li, a former career diplomat who is presently senior researcher at the Chongyang Institute of Financial Research of Renmin University and Director of the China Russia Humanities Exchange Research Center, had in mid-2020 warned that China must prepare for the deterioration and “full escalation of the struggle” in Sino-US relations. He anticipated a string of punitive actions by the Trump Administration, adding that "decoupling" is ultimately inevitable and that the “difficulties and challenges China will face will be unprecedentedly complex…
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Dec 2020 (It was first published by Vivekanand India Foundation on 30 December 2020)
View PDFXI JINPING LAUNCHES CAMPAIGNS TO ENTRENCH THE CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY (CCP)AMONG THE PEOPLE
Chinese President Xi Jinping has been under considerable pressure since he began his second term at the 19th Party Congress in October 2017. The US-China trade war and the Covid-19 pandemic have considerably enhanced the pressure. The Trump Administration’s efforts to target the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) so that the ideological commitment of its members would waver will have especially disconcerted Xi Jinping. He has in recent months redoubled efforts to refresh the commitment of Party members to communist ideology and enlarged the scope of the campaigns to include students in an attempt to ensure the CCP’s monopoly on power…
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Dec 2020
View PDFCHINA'S INTERNAL SITUATION: IS XI JINPING UNDER PRESSURE
Social stability is a topmost concern for China’s leadership as they see it as essential for the perpetuation of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)’s monopoly on power. To achieve this they play, to an extent, on the fears of the Chinese people of dongluang, or upheaval/chaos. Despite the efforts of the CCP leadership, especially under Xi Jinping, there is noticeable resentment and dissatisfaction. This has particularly marked his second term since the 19th Party Congress in November 2019. The trigger for the dissatisfaction was the abolition by Xi Jinping at the 19th Party Congress of the term limits on top…
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Dec 2020
View PDFCHINA'S THIRD CENTRAL XINJIANG WORK CONFERENCE
On the eve of the 65th anniversary of the establishment of the Xinjiang-Uyghur Autonomous Region (XUAR) and after an interval of six years, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) held its Third Central Xinjiang Work Symposium in Beijing on September 25-26, 2020. The conference was held in the midst of negative international media attention, which highlighted the instances of discrimination and reported incarceration of millions of Uyghurs in ‘re-education’ or ‘vocational’ centres constructed across the Autonomous Region.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Oct 2020
View PDFCHINESE PUBLICATION ASSERTS AKSAI CHIN IS "ILLEGALLY OCCUPIED BY INDIA"
A lengthy over 23,548-character (Chinese) article re-asserting China’s claim on Aksai Chin and Ladakh and authored by Zeng Hao, Associate Professor of the Law School of Hunan University as part of the phased research of a major National Social Science Fund-2018 project titled "Research on Major International Law Issues in Sino-Indian Relations", was published in the South Asian Studies (Issue 3/2020) of Sichuan University. Incidentally, Sichuan University was designated the nodal University for research on South Asia in 2017 by Chinese President Xi Jinping and allotted considerable funding. This issue of South Asian Studies was released on September 24, 2020.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Sep 2020
View PDFCHINA APPEARS TO HAVE INITIATED A PHASE OF DECEPTION ALONG THE LAC
Though China's statecraft and diplomacy have evolved after establishment of the People's Republic of China, camouflage, psywar, deception and deceit remain integral to the Chinese communist regime’s diplomatic practice.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Sep 2020
View PDFCHINESE THINKING ON THE INDIA-CHINA BORDER ISSUE
Recent utterances on the situation along the India-China Line of Actual Control (LAC) by Chinese officials – though infrequent – reflect the sentiment within China of strategists and academics specialising in International Relations. While there has been negligible coverage of the developments by the main print or TV channels, except in the Global Times which has been prolific, views have been expressed in articles and comments on China’s social media.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Sep 2020
View PDFCHINA’S SEVENTH TIBET WORK FORUM (AUGUST 29-30, 2020)
The Seventh Tibet Work Forum was held in Beijing on August 29-30, 2020. The Forum heralds a tougher regime for Tibetans in China, where the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will penetrate into each village and hamlet in the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR). There will be renewed emphasis on adapting Tibetan Buddhism to ‘socialism with Chinese characteristics’ and countering ‘separatism’ and the ‘Dalai clique’.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Sep 2020
View PDFXI JINPING’S EFFORTS TO CONSOLIDATE MARXIST IDEOLOGY AMONG CCP MEMBERS TO COUNTER U.S.
Confronted with growing tensions as US-China relations rapidly deteriorate, Chinese President Xi Jinping has asked Chinese Communist Party (CCP) members to prepare for a “protracted war” on multiple fronts. In addition to anticipated difficulties on the technology, economy and potentially military fronts, China’s communist leadership has taken special note of repeated American statements -- particularly by US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo -- about the threat from Chinese communism. For example, on August 25, the official CCP mouthpiece People’s Daily published a lengthy 3-page, 34,000-character response to Pompeo’s speech of July 23, at the Richard Nixon Presidential Library in California.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Aug 2020
View PDFPOSSIBLE REPERCUSSIONS OF CHINA’S NATIONAL SECURITY LAW FOR HONGKONG
The National Security Law (NSL) was passed by China’s National People’s Congress (NPC) Standing Committee (SC) on June 30, 2020, amidst considerable concern and controversy in Hongkong. There was no doubt that the Law would be passed especially because of the political turmoil in Hongkong which had lasted throughout the preceding year. Though the US and particularly UK, the former colonial master of the territory, had cautioned against enactment of the NSL saying it violated the provisions of the handover in 1997 and the guarantees given by China under the “one country, two systems” that allow Hongkong to retain some…
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Aug 2020
View PDFTENSION IS HIGH WITHIN CHINA’S LEADERSHIP ECHELONS AS UNITED STATES MAINTAINS UNRELENTING PRESSURE
As China-US relations deteriorate rapidly and tensions mount, concern is growing in the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)’s leadership echelons about the next punitive steps that the Trump Administration might take. Barely a week has gone by in recent months without at least one punitive sanction being slapped on China by the US. These sanctions are beginning to increasingly impact on the CCP and its members. Contributing to the concerns are worries in Beijing that US President Trump has a tough contest in the upcoming Presidential elections in November and could be tempted to take some military action against China to…
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Aug 2020
View PDFQIU SHI CALLS FOR PROTECTING XI JINPING AS “CORE” OF THE WHOLE CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY
There have been important developments in China’s domestic politics in recent weeks. These have built on the Party’s assessment of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s communist credentials. Coming as these do at a time when Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) are under considerable pressure due to domestic criticism and the economic situation, in addition to the all-round pressure exerted by the United States which have severely accentuated China’s difficulties, they assume significance. The CCP’s flagship theoretical magazine Qiu Shi (Seeking Truth) had in June 2014 -- within nineteen months of Xi Jinping’s assumption to power -- described Xi…
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Aug 2020
View PDFLEADING PARTY JOURNAL QIU SHI PUBLICISES XI JINPING’S COMPILATION OF 18 PHRASES EXTOLLING CCP’S LEADERSHIP
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP)’s flagship theoretical fortnightly magazine in its latest (2020/14; July 15, 2020) issue published two important articles. One was an article by Xi Jinping captioned ‘“The Leadership of the Chinese Communist Party Is the Most Essential Characteristic of Socialism With Chinese Characteristics.” It was prominently publicised on July 15, by Xinhua and the official party mouthpiece ‘People’s Daily’ and as the lead news item by the state-controlled CCTV. The article is essentially a compilation of 18 phrases culled from Xi Jinping’ speeches of the past 7 years from December 2013 to October 2019.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Jul 2020
View PDF‘XI JINPING LAUNCHES ‘YAN’AN STYLE’ CAMPAIGN TO CLEANSE CHINA’S SECURITY APPARATUS’
The national security apparatus is the crown jewel of any country. Authoritarian regimes pay particular attention to them as they help preserve the regime and keep the population compliant and in check. China's communist leaders have, for obvious reasons, been conscious of the importance of the security apparatus. In the backdrop of the increasing criticism since 2017 -- including by senior communist cadres and ‘princelings’ -- of him personally and his policies, Xi Jinping too has turned his attention to ensuring the loyalty of the security apparatus. He has just this month unleashed a severe year-long ‘rectification’ campaign throughout China’s…
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Jul 2020
View PDFCICIR'S ASSESSMENT OF CHINA’S MAJOR COUNTRY DIPLOMACY
The Chinese Institutes of Contemporary International Research (CICIR), a think-tank of China’s Ministry of State Security, published its analysis of ‘Chinese Major Country Diplomacy’ in May this year. The 9-page report authored by Chen Xiangyang, Director of the Research Group at CICIR, was divided into 6 sections titled: (i) Relations with Major Countries; (ii) Neighbour Countries; (iii) Global Governance; (iv) Protect Sovereignty against Foreign Intervention; (v) National Day Celebrations; and (vi) A New Era.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Jul 2020
View PDFCHINA: CONFERENCE ON PERIPHERAL DIPLOMACY
China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MoFA) and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Central Committee (CC)'s International Department (ID) together with the Yunnan University jointly hosted a conference on Peripheral Diplomacy on May 8, 2020. In addition to the Collaborative Innovation Center of MoFA, the Contemporary World Research Center of the CCP CC's International Department and the Peripheral Diplomacy Research Center of the Institute of International Relations of Yunnan University, there was participation by six other Universities and Institutes. The theme of the conference was 'Diplomacy around China in the context of the Coronavirus'.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Jul 2020
View PDFCHINESE RESEARCHERS SUGGEST MODULATION OF CHINA'S POLICY TOWARDS UNITED STATES
The growing strain in the US-China relationship continues to cause concern in the higher echelons of China’s leadership. Chinese think-tanks have cautioned that the situation could worsen considerably more and some, like the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, have recommended ways to bring about a change in public opinion in the US.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Jul 2020
View PDFCHINESE ASSESSMENTS OF THE INTERNATIONAL SITUATION
China’s largest and government-funded think-tank, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) and among the most influential, the Chinese Institutes of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR) of China’s Ministry of State Security, or foreign Intelligence establishment, published reports in May 2020 assessing the international situation.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Jul 2020
View PDFA BRIEF ASSESSMENT OF CHINA'S 3rd SESSION OF THE 13th CPPCC -- MAY 2020
As usual China’s top political advisory body, the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), held its annual plenary session in Beijing along with the National People’s Congress (NPC). The plenum was delayed this year and held two months later from May 21 to May 27, 2020, because of the Coronavirus pandemic.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Jun 2020 This was first published by Vivekananda International Foundation on June 23, 2020. Their link is: https://www.vifindia.org/article/2020/june/23/a-brief-assessment-of-chinas-3-session-of-the-13-the-chinese-peoples-political-consultative-conference
View PDFAN ASSESSMENT OF THE 3rd SESSION OF CHINA’S 13th NPC – MAY 2020
The 3rd Plenum of the 13th National People’s Congress (NPC) was held in Beijing from May 22 to 28, 2020, in the wake of the Coronavirus pandemic with restrictions on expenditure and social interaction.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Jun 2020 This was first published by Vivekananda International Foundation (VIF)
View PDFCHINA PROBABLY HAS A LARGER HIDDEN AGENDA
Since the beginning of May this year China has created an arc of sustained military pressure along India’s northern borders. This presently stretches from Daulet Beg Oldi in Ladakh, to Naku La over a thousand kilometres to the East in north Sikkim and possibly on to Bhutan. China’s action appears to blend military, civil and diplomatic instruments.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Jun 2020 (It was published on StratNews Global on June 8, 2020)
View PDF‘CHINA’S MILITARY AND THE NATIONAL PEOPLE’S CONGRESS’
The annual plenary meetings (May 21 -28), of China’s top political advisors who comprise the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) and Deputies to the National People’s Congress – China’s version of a parliament – in Beijing, are important events that give an insight into China’s economic situation, plans for the coming year and the thinking of China’s leadership. Commonly called the ‘Big Two’, the list of People’s Liberation Army (PLA) delegates attending the event yields clues as to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leadership’s areas of emphasis in the military as do their discussions.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Jun 2020
View PDF‘CHINA’S ‘BIG TWO’ HAVE DOMESTIC DISCONTENT AND US-CHINA TENSION AS BACKDROP: INDIA FINDS MENTION IN US-CHINA EXCHANGE’
Domestic discontent and US-China relations are among the Chinese leadership’s two top concerns. To the discomfiture of China’s leadership both issues surfaced on May 21, 2020, the opening day in Beijing of the ‘Big Two’, as the plenary sessions of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) -- China’s top advisory body -- and the 13th National People’s Congress (NPC) plenum -- China’s version of a parliament -- are known. Xu Zhangrun, former Professor of Law at Beijing’s prestigious Tsinghua University and who has near iconic status among China’s academics and intellectuals, penned an over 2000-character essay advising NPC Deputies…
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
May 2020
View PDFIMPLICATIONS OF THE ONGOING TENSION WITH CHINA ALONG THE LAC
China has accused India of crossing and violating the LAC. On 5 May the Chinese media reports said: On the May 18th, a reporter from the Global Times (in Chinese) learned from sources that the Chinese border guards have strengthened control over the Galwan Valley area and resolutely responded to the infringement of the Sino-Indian line to build facilities. According to relevant sources, since the beginning of May, the Indian side crossed the line into the Chinese territory and entered the Chinese territory, began to construct barriers, and blocked the normal patrol of the Chinese border defense forces.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
May 2020 (It has been published by VIF on May 26, 2020 and can be accessed at the following link https://www.vifindia.org/2020/may/26/implications-of-the-ongoing-tension-with-china-along-the-lac)
View PDF'CHINA'S VIEW OF TIES WITH THE U.S.-- HINTS OF CONCESSIONS?
High anxiety is apparent in the upper echelons of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leadership in Beijing at the present state of China-US relations. There is concern that escalating China-US tensions are at a “dangerous” turn and relations could further deteriorate leading even to conflict. Tensions have been sharply accentuated by the Coronavirus pandemic and consequent worldwide rise in anti-China sentiment, which China’s leadership assesses has been fanned by the US.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
May 2020
View PDFXI JINPING SHORES POSITION TO FEND-OFF OPPONENTS
CCP General Secretary and Chinese President Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) have been badly bruised by public criticism, which was accentuated by the initial mishandling of the Coronavirus epidemic in Wuhan. After an extended hiatus, which includes Xi Jinping’s unexplained disappearance from public view at the peak of the crisis between January 29 and February 10, Xi Jinping is now demonstrating his political authority and influence to shore his position and fend-off opponents.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
May 2020
View PDFCHINESE PRESIDENT XI JINPING REACTS TO INNER-PARTY OPPOSITION
After an extended hiatus when Covid-19 and the economy appeared to preoccupy the Chinese leadership, Chinese President Xi Jinping fired a warning shot across the bow of opponents and potential opponents in the middle and higher echelons of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). A meeting of the Politburo on April 17, 2020, chaired by Chinese President Xi Jinping approved the establishment of a new ‘Small Group’ on Security. It also approved its membership.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Apr 2020
View PDFCHINA AND THE POST COVID-19 WORLD
In the midst of the black clouds of the Coronavirus, or Covid-19, spreading uncertainty around the globe and governments grappling to stop the immense loss to human life and damage to their economies, world leaders have begun assessing the possible contours of the post Covid-19 world.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Apr 2020
View PDFCHINA'S ECONOMIC REVIVAL WILL FACE SERIOUS HEADWINDS
Quite apart from the huge tragic cost to human life caused by the Coronavirus (COVID- 19) pandemic, mishandling of which by China’s leadership has angered and frustrated the country’s citizens as evidenced by the riots at the border check-post between Hubei and Jiangxi provinces on March 28, the pandemic has severely impacted China’s economy. The epidemic virtually stopped China’s economic growth for nearly three months and rendered millions jobless.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Mar 2020
View PDFDISSATISFACTION WITH CHINESE PRESIDENT XI JINPING MOUNTS
Expressions of popular discontent in China have increased and are mounting pressure on Chinese President Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). The widespread anger among Chinese citizens at the lack of transparency and attempt to withhold information about outbreak of the Coronavirus epidemic was the spark that fanned the latent discontent which, provoked by the abolition of term-limits on appointments to China’s apex posts of President, Vice President and cadres to the Politburo and its Standing Committee, has been simmering since the 19th Party Congress in October 2017.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Mar 2020
View PDFTHE COVID-19 EPIDEMIC AND CHINA’S ECONOMY
The Coronavirus epidemic struck China when it was in the midst of serious economic problems and high unemployment and Chinese economists were already candidly warning of a 1 percent drop in growth this year. The attempted cover-up by Chinese authorities of the Coronavirus epidemic for nearly two months -- unimaginable in democracies -- exacerbated economic losses and disruption in addition to causing the loss of numerous lives and delaying an international medical response to the virus.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Mar 2020
View PDFTIBET AUTONOMOUS REGION (TAR)’s EXPENDITURE ON PUBLIC SECURITY
Tibetans have till this day not acquiesced to China’s occupation of Tibet or large portions of its territory being merged with the neighbouring Xinjiang-Uyghur Autonomous Region and the Qinghai, Sichuan, Gansu and Yunnan provinces to create the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR) in September 1965. In the process Tibet was reduced in area from 2.5 million square kms to 1.2 million square kms.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Mar 2020 (It has been published by VIF at this link also. https://www.vifindia.org/2020/march/13/china-and-us-could-emerge-as-adversaries-over-the-tibet-issue )
View PDFCHINA AND U.S. COULD EMERGE AS ADVERSARIES OVER THE TIBET ISSUE
China’s communist authorities appear to have reached the conclusion approximately 18 months ago that the time for selecting the reincarnation of the XIVth Dalai Lama is drawing near. Since then they have stepped up efforts to capture the hearts and minds of the Tibetan people and adapt Tibetan Buddhism to “socialism with Chinese characteristics”.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Mar 2020
View PDFPOPULAR PROTESTS UNDERMINE CHINESE PRESIDENT XI JINPING'S CREDIBILITY
Popular discontent and dissatisfaction with Chinese President Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) simmering since March 2018 erupted into overt public criticism from the end of January 2020, prompted by news of the Wuhan virus epidemic becoming public. There is presently little indication of it abating till at least the epidemic begins to peter out. By then it would have palpably dented, if not damaged, the credibility and image of Chinese President Xi Jinping and the CCP.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Feb 2020
View PDFDPP's WIN IN TAIWAN ELECTIONS WILL HAVE REPERCUSSIONS
The results of Taiwan’s national elections announced on January 12, confirmed assessments that Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen’s popularity ratings had received a substantial boost, partly because of China’s threatening posture but mainly because of the unceasing protests in Hongkong that have now entered their ninth month without losing popular support. The results will impact China. Beijing -- and Chinese President Xi Jinping -- now confront the prospect of the ‘China Dream’, envisaging China’s ‘reunification’ by 2021 or even 2049, becoming a distant prospect. The results could have wider repercussions in the region.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Jan 2020
View PDFCHINESE PRESIDENT XI JINPING FACES DIFFICULT TIMES AHEAD
There are clear indications that popular dissatisfaction and discontent with Chinese President Xi Jinping inside China continues to simmer just below the surface. The economic slowdown, unemployment and rising cost of living have contributed to the discontent.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Jan 2020
View PDFTHE CHINA DREAM
An idea never dies and the Chinese elite understood that centuries ago! 2. The ‘China Dream’, or idea of making China great again, has been espoused by Chinese leaders for more than a couple of centuries and the idea continues to resonate with the Chinese people. The first popular expression of this sentiment was the Boxer Rebellion (1889-1901), which was anti-imperialist, anti-foreign and anti-Christian – together crystalising into resentment against the colonial powers who had divided China, as the Chinese say, ‘like an over-ripe pomegranate’! The narrative being propagated by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leadership of “a hundred years…
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Nov 2019
View PDFCCP CC’S 4TH PLENUM COULD SUGGEST A DILUTION IN XI JINPING’S AUTHORITY
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) held the long overdue 4th plenary session of its 19th Central Committee (CC) from October 28 – 31, 2019. Held after a delay of nearly 20 months, the 4th Plenum took place at a time of some uncertainty in China, indicated also by speculative reports suggesting that the Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) could be expanded with the addition of a couple of new members. This speculation, which claimed that the induction of new members would signal a political setback for Xi Jinping, proved erroneous. However, while the Plenum communique unequivocally emphasised the Party’s importance in…
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Nov 2019
View PDFCHINA: PATH TO HI-TECHNOLOGY
The world is on the threshold of major technology advances that will translate what has so far been in the realm of science fiction to everyday reality. There is clear promise of transformational changes, with the next couple of decades being witness to technology driving almost every aspect of life.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Oct 2019
View PDFCAN THE SECOND XI-MODI SUMMIT TACKLE THE REALLY DIFFICULT ISSUES
In just around a fortnight in mid-October, Chinese President Xi Jinping is scheduled to arrive in India for his second ‘informal’ meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the ancient coastal town of Mamallapuram near Chennai. Xi Jinping is likely to combine it with a visit to neighbouring Nepal where China has in recent years acquired considerable influence, the pace of which has accelerated since installation of the communist government initially under Prachanda. Developments over the past months, however, make any meaningful progress at the Summit unlikely.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Oct 2019 (It was published on https://www.vifindia.org/2019/october/04/can-the-second-xi-modi-summit-tackle-the-really-difficult-issues )
View PDFCHINA’S XIAOKANG (WELL-OFF) BORDER DEFENCE VILLAGES IN TIBET AUTONOMOUS REGION
Since the 19th Party Congress in October 2017, Chinese President Xi Jinping has signalled that extra attention would be paid by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leadership to building a more comprehensive security structure in the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR). The new architecture strengthens the present security apparatus already in place and combines it with Chinese President Xi Jinping’s new initiative of ‘model ‘xiaokang’ (well-off) border defence villages’. It is part of his nationwide push for poverty alleviation spelt out at the 19th Party Congress. The ‘xiaokang’ (well-off) border defence villages’ are also intended to create a buffer inhabited by…
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Sep 2019
View PDFINNER-PARTY DIFFERENCES ON HONG KONG ISSUE POSE PROBLEMS FOR XI JINPING
China’s leadership will have been incensed by the photographs and videos of protestors in Hong Kong carrying American flags and chanting “America please take over Hong Kong” on September 9, in apparent escalation of the protests against Chinese rule by millions of Hong Kong residents that have continued over fifteen weekends in the adverse glare of international media publicity. It would have underscored the concerns of senior and veteran leaders at the annual gathering in Beidaihe of a ‘colour revolution’.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Sep 2019 (It was published on https://www.vifindia.org/article/2019/september/16/inner-party-differences-on-hong-kong-issue-pose-problems-for-xi-jinping on 16 September.)
View PDFTHE US-CHINA TRADE WAR: FALL OUT IN CHINA
The mood in the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) hierarchy is sombre. The US-China trade war as it is called marks a substantive change in the US-China relationship. Mutual suspicion now taints what Beijing has for decades described as its most important relationship. The bipartisan support that Trump’s new policy towards China enjoys points to strains in the relationship lasting for quite some time and, in any case, fundamentally altering it.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Aug 2019
View PDFNO CHANGE IN CHINESE PRESIDENT XI JINPING’S ASSERTIVE POLICIES DESPITE PRESSURE
Since more than the past 18 months Chinese President Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) have been under increasing pressure because of the US-China Tariff war. Washington has also been trying to create an adverse international environment for China. The recent troubles in Hongkong, blamed by the official Chinese media as the handiwork of hostile foreign forces, are additionally problematic. Domestically too, the cost of living is rising and China’s economy has been slowing thereby contributing to increased unemployment and sparking worker unrest.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Jul 2019
View PDFBELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE (BRI) AND ITS FUTURE IMPLICATIONS
When we look at the BRI, it is important to look at it from a broader perspective. Over the last decade or so, there has been a flux in global geopolitics. The older established powers are being challenged by other emerging centers of power especially in Asia. It is in this context that we have to look at BRI, the evolution of which coincides with this flux. In addition there is an attempt by China to reshape the world order as we know it.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Apr 2019
View PDFAN ASSESSMENT OF THE SECOND PLENUM OF CHINA’S 13TH NATIONAL PEOPLE’S CONGRESS
2158 delegates of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) and 2948 Deputies of the National People’s Congress (NPC) convened in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing in the first fortnight of March 2019, for their respective annual plenary sessions. The plenary sessions set the agenda for the year ahead and accorded formal approval of the entire 89 million-strong Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to the policies, programmes and budget of the CCP leadership for the coming year.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Apr 2019
View PDFCPEC AND CHALLENGES FOR PAKISTAN
China’s ‘One Belt, One Road’, which was first proposed in September 2013 and combines the twin initiatives of the Silk Road Economic Belt and 21st Century Maritime Silk Road, is a grand concept that envisions China girdling the globe. Potentially covering 55 per cent of the world GNP, 70 per cent of the global population, and 75 per cent of known energy reserves, it is essentially a plan for a China-built land and sea transportation artery to link China’s production centres with markets and natural resource centres around the world.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
(It was published in April, 2019 by http://www.pugwashindia.com)
View PDFINITIAL ASSESSMENT OF CHINA’S CPPCC PLENARY SESSION - 2019
Earlier in March this year, China successfully concluded plenary meetings of the Party’s top two bodies, which set the agenda for the year ahead. 2158 delegates of China's top political advisory body, the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) gathered in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing from March 9 - 11, 2019. The CPPCC’s responsibilities include supervising the United Front Work Department (UFWD) and overseas work relating to China’s ethnic minorities, enacting regulations and policies for China’s ethnic minorities, interacting with noncommunist entities and forging relations with foreign political parties, creating pro- Beijing lobbies abroad etc. The…
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Mar 2019
View PDFCHINA INTENSIFIES EFFORTS TO DIMINISH DALAI LAMA'S INFLUENCE
There has been a visible acceleration over the past many months in the efforts of the Chinese authorities to diminish and undermine the XIVth Dalai Lama’s influence over Tibetans inside China. Additionally, this year is marked by a number of anniversaries in China's political calendar including the 70th year of the founding of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in October, the founding anniversary of the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) in April as well as the sensitive thirtieth anniversary of the Tiananmen ‘incident’ in June and sixtieth anniversary of the XIVth Dalai Lama's flight from Tibet on March 10.…
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
(It has been published by VIF and link is: https://www.vifindia.org/article/2019/march/15/china-intensifies-efforts-to-diminish-dalai-lama-s-influence)
View PDFCHINESE STATE COUNCILLOR AND PUBLIC SECURITY MINISTER ZHAO KEZHI’S VISIT YIELDS LITTLE TANGIBLE
Chinese State Councillor and Minister of Public Security Zhao Kezhi arrived in India on October 22,for visits to Delhi and Mumbai at the head of a 20-member security delegation. It included 13 officials of China’s Ministry of Public Security (MPS) and 3 from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MoFA). He later travelled to Bangladesh where too he had high-level meetings including with Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina.India and Bangladesh are both, coincidentally, headed into national elections in the coming months.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Oct 2018
View PDFTHE US-CHINA TRADE WAR: A STRATEGIC MOVE
Major changes in the international geo-political landscape, anticipated since the global economic downturn in 2008, are now beginning to occur. The Sino-US relationship, one of the world’s most important in the past nearly four decades, is undergoing fundamental change with US President Donald Trump translating into action the apprehensions of the US establishment about China’s rise and potential challenge to US primacy. He is the first US President since Nixon to begin altering the nature of US relations with China.
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Sep 2018
View PDFTIBET IS RECEIVING HIGHER PRIORITY IN RECENT MONTHS
High level cadres of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) do not often travel outside Beijing unless it is to ‘Red Revolutionary’ historical sites or because of a natural calamity or an important event or meeting. The visits, therefore, in the short span of a month by the second and fourth ranking members of the CCP’s Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) – two among the seven who ‘rule’ the People’s Republic of China – are unusual and significant. At the least it suggests that the top echelon of the CCP is according new, enhanced priority to the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR). Chinese…
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Sep 2018
View PDFCOMPOSITION AND IMPLICATIONS OF CHINESE DEFENCE MINISTER WEI FENGHE’S VISIT TO INDIA
India and China have planned to exchange a few important visits in the remaining months of this year. An Army Commander from India is scheduled to travel to China in a few weeks, the first visit by an Army Commander since 2015, followed by National Security Advisor Doval and possibly another high level visit. Chinese Defence Minister General Wei Fenghe, who was on a 4-day visit to India from August 21, is the first of the important visitors from China. He is to be followed in a couple of months by China’s Minister of Public Security Zhao Kezhi, who has…
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Aug 2018
View PDFPEOPLE'S LIBERATION ARMY (PLA) AND PEOPLE'S ARMED POLICE (PAP) DEPUTIES TO CHINA’S THIRTEENTH NATIONAL PEOPLE'S
Chen Min’er, Politburo member and recently appointed Party Secretary of the centrally administered Chongqing Municipality, said on the sidelines of the NPC session on March 6, 2018, that investigating former Politburo members Bo Xilai and Sun Zhengcai had removed "major political hidden dangers for the party" and that "They both are the source of the pollution of the political ecology, and they massively harmed Chongqing's officials."
Mr. JAYADEVA RANADE
Mar 2018
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