CHINA-ECONOMY: EMPLOYMENT FORECAST FOR CHINA IS BLEAK

The independent Chinese financial magazine Caixin (March 31) assessed that China is facing a severe economic slowdown and massive unemployment because the coronavirus hit it so badly. Caixin published a model that forecast 150 to 200 million people will lose their jobs. Using the step-by-step estimation method, 200 million people (including 180 million in the service industry) will lose their jobs. Using the aggregation estimation method, 150 million (including 110 million in the service industry) will lose their jobs. The Chinese-owned HK01 (April 3) quoted China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology as stating that by March 30, 76 percent of small or mid-sized companies resumed operation. That means 24 percent, or nearly a quarter of the companies did not resume yet. Radio France International cited (April 6) the South China Morning Post as saying that more than 460,000 companies in China stopped their operations in the first quarter. Voice of America (April 2) reported that Western buyers have canceled many orders they placed with Chinese companies. The only hot orders are medical supplies. There will be 9 million college students graduating this summer. However, the number of possible jobs for those college graduates has dropped 30 percent from a year ago. Peng Airao, the Chief Economist of the Great China Regions of the ING Bank, predicted that China’s unemployment rate may rise to 10 percent by the end of this year. 







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