CHINA-ECONOMY: JP MORGAN AND PETERSON INSTITUTE ANALYSTS FORECAST AN UPTICK IN CHINA'S ECONOMIC GROWTH

The Wall Street Journal reported (August 24) that J.P. Morgan recently boosted its 2020 China growth forecast to 2.5% from 1.3% in April. Economists at the World Bank and elsewhere have also upgraded their forecasts for China. The upward re-evaluation of China's growth forecast would buttress Beijing’s belief that China’s state-led model, which helped the country navigate the 2008-09 financial crisis with minimal pain, is better than the U.S.’s market system. Nicholas Lardy, an economist and China expert at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, said China’s inflation-adjusted economic output will likely hit $11.9 trillion this year, the largest advance China has made on the U.S. in a single year. Homi Kharas, a senior global economics and development fellow at the Brookings Institution, said the coronavirus puts China’s economy on track to reach parity with the U.S. in 2028 in absolute terms, using current dollars—two years faster than his pre-coronavirus estimate. He said, “China will emerge even stronger as the largest economy in the developing world.”







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