A Beijing-based Chinese observer said in the third week of September that many people residing in China and Taiwan are anticipating an ’October Surprise’ as the U.S. election nears this year.  According to him hints of Trump’s planned ‘October Surprise’ are the: large-scale US-Japan joint military exercises held late October and early November and naming it ‘Keen Sword’. He said the particular aspect of this military exercise noticed by many people is not the strength and seriousness of the US military, but the full involvement of Japan. This large-scale military exercise, he assessed, was specially arranged with Trump before Abe stepped down. This observer added that the exercise reveals that the US and Japan share two important views on China: first, they can no longer appease Xi Jinping let alone harbour illusions, so prepare for the worst; second, Taiwan’s military power is insufficient for self-defense, and coupled with internally responsive political forces, has become an important factor in encouraging Xi Jinping to take military risks. Rather than waiting for Xi Jinping to act first, it is better to dispel his thoughts. 

(Comment: Tension has been high in China for some months now and there is speculation in CCP leadership echelons that US President Trump might do something unexpected -- including spark a conflict -- in the days leading up to the elections to boost his chances.)