The Japan-China Economic Research (JCER) institute in a recent study forecast that in 2020, only China, Vietnam and Taiwan are on track to maintain positive year-on-year growth rates. India's rate is likely to be negative by more than 10%, while the Philippines is expected to see a contraction of more than 8%. Hong Kong, Thailand, Canada, Malaysia and Singapore are all facing gross domestic product shrinkage of more than 6%. It said despite China's economic slowdown in recent years, due to demographic challenges and declining investment, its economy is still forecast to be growing at a roughly 3% clip in 2035. In the U.S., sluggish productivity is seen holding the growth rate to about 1% in 2035. JCER's scenario envisions China overtaking America in 2029. And by 2035, China's economic scale, including Hong Kong, would reach $41.8 trillion -- only slightly less than the combined scale of the U.S. and Japan at that point, at $42.3 trillion. China, it said. is poised to become a high-income country even earlier, in 2023, and its income per capita should reach $28,000 in 2035 -- comparable to Taiwan's figure today but still shy of the Chinese government's assumed target of $30,000.
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