CHINA-ECONOMY: PEOPLE'S BANK OF CHINA RESEARCHERS WARN OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF A DECLINING POPULATION

The South China Morning Post (April 15) reported that in an unusually direct and frank tone, four researchers from the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) in a working paper dated late March and posted on the bank’s website on April 14, said the country should not interfere with people’s ability to have children or it will be too late to reverse the economic impact of a declining population. The researchers said “We should not hesitate and wait for the effects of existing birth policies. The birth liberalisation should happen now when there are some residents who still want to have children but can’t. It’s useless to liberalise it when no one wants to have children. On the other hand, we need to create a birth friendly environment and solve the problems that women encounter during pregnancy, childbirth, nursery and school enrolment". According to the paper, 14 per cent of China's population will be above 65 next year. While it took China 22 years to reach that level, it took the US 72 years by comparison. The researchers said, “If China has narrowed the gap with the United States in the past 40 years, relying on cheap labour and a huge demographic dividend, what will it rely on in the next 30 years?”





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