CHINA-US: CHINESE OFFICIAL FORECASTS STEADY RISE FOR CHINA AND DECLINE OF THE U.S.

Prof. Huang Renwei, Executive President of the Fudan Institute of Belt and Road & Global Governance and former Vice President of SASS, recently spoke on "What does the decline of American hegemony mean to the world?". He anticipated a future in which US hegemony declines and China's overall power grows and said because "US fear of losing its hegemony is combined with its fear of China," and "Washington has positioned China as its number one strategic competitor, primary strategic threat, and the largest "revisionist" country in the international order," China, too, must rethink its US strategy. Huang makes the following predictions: 1) Assuming that the US can no longer fulfill so many global obligations, it will abandon many. However, in new ventures, the US and China are on the same starting point, so there will be opportunities for China. 2) Although the US remains the "largest" economy, its share of the global economy will continue to decline, while China's share will rise. This is China's most potent trump card, as it means that many countries will be unwilling to be China's adversary and even fewer will be willing to get involved in a Sino-US showdown. The so-called "anti-China united front" will further disintegrate. 3) If the US dollar's status is shaken, it will cause a crisis in China, as it has significant assets in US dollars. However, this is also an opportunity to reorganise the global monetary system on China's terms. And 4) The restructuring of global supply chains - Initially, China was concerned about decoupling and business withdrawal from China, but it has now - and especially in the post COVID era - been demonstrated that they cannot go back and will not pull out.





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