The South China Morning Post (September 18) quoted diplomatic and military observers as saying that Beijing is likely to step up its military activities to deter Taiwan while retaliating diplomatically against the US if the island’s de facto embassy in Washington gets renamed, but these countermeasures are likely to be limited. The newspaper said the Biden administration has reportedly been considering a Taiwanese request to change the name of its mission in the US capital from the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office (Tecro) to the Taiwan Representative Office, which could be received by Beijing as a serious insult if it went ahead. It said Beijing has “lodged solemn representations” with the US and urged it to abide by the one-China principle, a policy that confines foreign states to choosing between Beijing and Taipei to establish formal diplomatic ties, with no allowance for dual recognition. It quoted Yue Gang, a former PLA colonel, who said that since Beijing had always insisted it reserved the right to use force to bring the self-ruled Taiwan into its fold, military pressure on the island would escalate. He linked the intrusion into Taiwan's ADIZ by 10 PLAAF aircraft on September 17 to this development. Yue Gang said “Certainly, we would not spare Taiwan from punishment if they did change the name of the mission, because the Taiwanese independence forces initiated it through intense lobbying and promotion, to cater and facilitate the anti-China atmosphere in Washington.” He said the mainland measures could include bigger-scale drills in the Taiwan Strait and around the island, and an increased number of sorties and greater frequency of PLA air force flyovers across the median line of the strait – a de facto military demarcation that has been frequently crossed by the PLA since last year – and even get closer to the island’s immediate airspace – “their psychological red lines to break, but it’s unlikely we would enter the airspace, because our goal is to put them under mental pressure, not to start the war just yet.”
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