CHINA-US: CHINESE THINK-TANK CLAIMS RISK OF SINO-US CONFLICT IN SOUTH CHINA SEA IS RELATIVELY LOW
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The South China Morning Post (September 26) cited a report released by the Knowfar Institute for
Strategic and Defence Studies, a think tank founded by retired Chinese military officers, on
September 23. The report says the risk of military conflict between China and the US remains
relatively low despite the two powers’ disagreements over the South China Sea and broader rivalry.
It said defence and maritime experts also said extensive interaction between the two militaries over
the years had helped to ensure restraint rather than either instigating aggression. According to the
report by Knowfar Institute for Strategic and Defence Studies, the chance of a surprise US attack
on features in the disputed South China Sea that had been built on by China was “relatively low”
because all parties were disinclined to take strategic risks. It said the US Navy has for more than a
decade tended to use an Arleigh Burke guided-missile destroyer to conduct freedom of navigation
operations (FONOPs) in the disputed waters despite having more powerful amphibious
expeditionary strike groups in the region. “The USS amphibious fleets are in the South China Sea,
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but they never take part in the FONOPs in the region,” it said, adding the Americans had actually
scaled down their military presence in the region during the Covid-19 pandemic.
(Comment: This report by the Chinese think-tank suggests that the Chinese are veering to the view
that they will be unable to match the US in any conflict.)
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