CHINA-US: JOHN BOLTON SAYS OVER THE LONGER TERM CHINA AND RUSSIA WILL THREATEN U.S. IN THREE DISTINCT THEATRES
In an article in the Wall Street Journal (August 30), John Bolton wrote that America’s retreat from
Afghanistan is ending tragically—and that has sweeping strategic implications. He said a major
misjudgement underlying the “ending endless wars” mantra was that withdrawing affected only
Afghanistan. He said "In the near term, responding to both menaces and opportunities emanating
from Afghanistan, China will seek to increase its already considerable influence in Pakistan;
Russia will do the same in Central Asia’s former Soviet republics; and both will expand their Middle East initiatives, often along with Iran. There is little evidence that the White House is ready
to respond to any of these threats. Over the longer term, Beijing and Moscow enjoy a natural
division of labour in threatening America and its allies, in three distinct theatres: China on its
periphery’s long arc from Japan across Southeast Asia out to India and Pakistan; Russia in Eastern
and Central Europe; and the Russian-Iranian-Chinese entente cordiale in the Middle East". He said
that "U.S. planning must contemplate many threats arising simultaneously across these and other
theatres". Saying that Xi Jinping will not be impressed by the arguments justifying U.S.
withdrawal from Afghanistan, Bolton said instead "Beijing has new opportunities: shoring up its
interests in Afghanistan and Pakistan; protecting against the spread of Islamic terror into China;
and increasing efforts to establish hegemony along its periphery, especially regarding Taiwan, the
South China Sea and India". He called the U.S. to quickly take robust measures including raising
the defence budget and expanding the Quad.
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