The South China Morning Post (January 20) Chinese Professor of International Relations at Beijing’s
Renmin University, Shi Yinhong, as saying at an international relations forum in Beijing on January 20 that
tensions in the Taiwan Strait have steadily escalated amid growing US support for Taiwan and with Beijing
seeing the self-ruled island as a breakaway province, reunification has become a much more pressing goal in
recent years. He said reunification – which Beijing aims to achieve within a decade – could mean a massive
use of force, or the threat of a massive use of force. Shi Yinhong warned that confrontations over Taiwan
might lead to armed conflict or even a war in the strait, and that a serious and careful assessment of the
situation was more necessary now than at any time in the past 25 years. He said, “The Chinese government
is unlikely to give the United States and Taiwan an impression that [it] seeks to completely avoid military
conflict with the US over Taiwan, as Beijing believes this will lead to a deepening of US support for Taiwan,
and make Taiwan more determined to seek independence”, adding all parties must assess the situation and
be prepared in case there is war over Taiwan. Also at the Beijing forum, Zhu Feng, a Professor of
International Relations at Nanjing University, warned that the Taiwan issue might become a flashpoint in the
Sino-US strategic rivalry, as Beijing sees the US trying “to force China into a corner” by repeating the tactics it used against the Soviet Union during the Cold War. Cui Hongjian, a senior research fellow at the China
Institute of International Studies in Beijing, said the situation was becoming ever more serious, with
Lithuania having taken the lead to confront Beijing over Taiwan, and others in Europe following suit. He
said, “It is difficult to avoid the trend of Taiwan issues becoming more long-term and explicit issues in
Europe.” This, he said, was due to political changes in Europe but also related to the overall competition
between China and the US, which uses its alliance system to contain Beijing. Jia Qingguo, a Professor of
International Studies at Peking University, said China and the US were almost on the brink of military
conflict over Taiwan. Saying that in the short term, the room for any improvement in US-China relations was
very limited, he said, the likelihood of a deterioration was high and the possibility of a turn towards
cooperation unlikely. However, in the medium and long term, stability, and a strengthening of cooperation
in some areas could be expected, given the common interests in bilateral and multilateral issues.
Separately, speaking at the third Hong Kong Forum on US-China Relations via video link on January 19,
former Singapore Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong said, “My biggest concern is whether Taiwan becomes a
casus belli,” adding that “I do not think the mainland wants to invade Taiwan and reunify it through force.
However, if it sees no prospect for peaceful reunification, it may believe it has no choice.” He said that the
US and China should negotiate “guard rails” and create a direct and open communication channel so its
leaders could contact each other quickly to avert conflict over Taiwan.
|
