The Chinese magazine "K 36" published (February 18) an excerpt from "The Prospects of
China's Economy", authored by Justin Yifu Lin, a reputed Chinese economist, and former
World Bank Chief Economist. It quoted Justin Yifu Lin as saying "2021 is a very important
node. It is not only the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Communist Party of China,
but also the beginning of a new journey to build a modern socialist country in an all-round way.
The most important task of the "two sessions" in 2021 is to discuss and approve the "14th FiveYear Plan for the National Economic and Social Development of the People's Republic of
China and the Outline of the Vision for 2035". I am very happy to have the opportunity to
interpret this". The article said that Justin Yifu Lin had also observed: "In response, many
people have begun to emphasise a second reason, namely the impact of an ageing population
on economic growth rates. It is true that countries with ageing populations have slower
economic growth, but it should not be forgotten that most of the countries with ageing
populations are developed countries, and by the time they are ageing, their technology will
have developed to the forefront of the world, and technological progress will have to be
explored on their own, combined with a slower labour supply, resulting in slower economic growth. China is experiencing an ageing population, but our GDP per capita is only 22.6% of
that of the United States, so there is still plenty of scope for technological innovation and
industrial upgrading to take advantage of the latecomer advantage, and to increase labour
productivity by allocating labour from low value-added to high value-added industries.
Therefore, if China can take advantage of the latecomer advantage, it can grow faster than
developed countries even if its population does not grow. In addition, China is now gradually
extending the retirement age, which is conducive to increasing labour supply. Moreover, the
importance of the labour force is not only in terms of quantity but also in terms of quality, and
China can also increase its level of efficiency per capita". He added "If China can achieve an
economic growth rate of 5% to 6%, it will be a historic moment when the GNI (Gross National
Income) per capita will cross the threshold of US$12,535 by 2025 and become a high-income
country. Because until now, only 18% of the world's population lived in high-income countries,
this figure would double if China became a high-income country. By 2035, China should be
able to reach a GDP per capita of $23,000 (based on the purchasing power of the dollar in 2019)
and China will become a modern socialist country". He elaborated "If China can tap its
development potential and achieve the speed of development obtained in the previous analysis,
by 2049, China's per capita GDP will reach 1/2 of that of the United States, and China's
population is 4 times that of the United States, then the total size of the economy is twice that
of the United States. .Among them, Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai and the five eastern coastal
provinces (Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Guangdong) have a population of a little more
than 400 million. I believe that the per capita GDP and economic scale of these regions can
fully reach the United States by 2049. same level. GDP per capita represents the average labour
rate level and the average technology industry level."
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