US-based Chinese dissident Wang Dan, who protested at Tiananmen in 1989 and was exiled,
has written an article in 'Dialogue China' (February 15) asserting that "Zero Covid" is not really
about health.
Stating that with the resurgence of the less transmissible but more virulent Delta – rather than
the more transmissible but less virulent Omicron pandemic -- since the end of last year in
Tianjin, Henan, Guangdong, and many other cities nationwide at the beginning of this year,
China’s stringent and dynamic zero COVID policy will continue for the foreseeable future. He
then questioned whether the “zero COVID tolerance” is really that important to Xi Jinping?
Stating that just after New Year's Day 2022, Washington and Beijing stopped 44 scheduled
flights between each other’s countries because the Chinese side found passengers on flights
from the United States testing positive for COVID and the United States side was puzzled by
this, Wang Dan said the truth was the CT value* of the nucleic acid test in China is surprisingly
higher than that of other countries. While it is generally between 30 and 35 in Western countries,
it is 40 in China. A related controversial incident, he said, was that unable to tolerate the
disruption to their lives and work caused by Beijing’s extremely harsh zero COVID policy the
United States Embassy in China authorized a diplomatic evacuation. He said the pandemic
and its related disasters are growing in intensity in society in China and attributed the current
resurgence of infection in many parts of the country to 'Xi Jinping’s superstitious and
headstrong thinking on zero tolerance'. He added that 'almost all of those who are currently on
the front lines of the fight against the pandemic and are adamant about the zero tolerance policy
are Xi Jinping’s cronies and loyalists, including Cai Qi in Beijing, Li Hongzhong in Tianjin,
Lou Yangsheng in Henan, Li Qiang in Shanghai, Li Xi in Guangdong among others'. Xi
Jinping's opponents, he said, are seizing upon any mistakes in the fight against the pandemic.
He said 'it does not matter whether “zero tolerance’ or “living with the virus” is better or worse.
Of paramount importance is how to maintain the political leadership and absolute power of Xi
Jinping and his cronies. It all boils down to one factor: Xi Jinping’s mission to achieve lifelong
rule at the 20th Communist Party National Congress later this year. The “zero COVID tolerance”
policy provides a once-in-a-lifetime excuse and means for Xi Jinping’s ascension'. Mentioning
that 'before Xi Jinping came to power at the 18th National Communist Party Congress – while ‘hiding his abilities and biding his time’ – he did not have the time and opportunity to build his
own network of loyal supporters, except for the so-called Zhijiang New Army* and various
political appointees later on. His national political organization is still very weak'. He also
observed that 'China’s economic situation is not good at present. Since Xi Jinping took office
in 2012, the GDP growth rate has been decreasing, hovering at about six percent for a long
time. The recently released GDP figures for 2021, although claiming a growth rate of 8.1
percent, are actually only about 5 percent when averaged with those of 2020. Therefore, there
is no doubt that China’s economic development situation is deteriorating. The local fiscal
deficit problem in the last two years has also made local officials cry for help, and the struggle
between the central and local governments around fiscal interests will be further intensified.
All these are the reasons and causes this is the last chance for Xi Jinping to rectify the cadre
problem before the 20th National Communist Party Congress'. He added that 'This is also
linked to a number of political, economic, and social policies and actions taken by Xi Jinping
since he took office: purging political rivals and dissidents under the pretext of anti-corruption
campaigns, restructuring the financial sector, plunging headlong into the US-China trade war,
suppressing the real estate economy, clamping down on large Internet enterprises, cracking
down on the educational training industry, and even recently extorting artists and internet
celebrities, to name a few. The logic is the same in all these matters, that is, some industries
are suppressed because Xi Jinping does not like them for personal reasons, and some are
shuttered because Xi Jinping feels that they are detrimental to his work of ascending to lifelong
leadership. Therefore, from the very beginning the policy choice of “zero COVID tolerance”
or “coexistence with the virus” has been a political choice tied to Xi Jinping’s great enterprise
of ascension to become paramount leader for life. To ascend or step down? That is the question'.
(Comment: (i) * CT stands for “Cycle Threshold” and indicates how many times a machine
needs to try to copy a particular virus’s genetic material before being able to detect that material
on a particular test called a Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) test. The CT value can be looked
at as an indirect indicator of the amount of viral genetic material detected from a particular
specimen on a particular test at a particular time. In general, a lower CT value indicates a higher
viral load in that specimen, and a higher CT value indicates a lower viral load.
(ii) Rumours in China are that the Zero Covid policy will remain in place. Hong Kong is already
going to go into super-control mode, with three rounds of testing for everyone, and every
positive test isolated for 5-7 days, and no intention of lifting travel bans. Mainland restrictions
and quarantine of close contacts of positive cases is stringent and existing standards require 100 isolation rooms per positive test, with many hotels are being used for this purpose. but
Chinese statistics claim that 4.5 million hotel rooms are available.
(iii) * The New Zhijiang Army (之江新軍 Zhījiāng Xīnjūn) is a term used by observers to refer
to political figures in the Chinese Communist Party who held important provincial and local
posts during Xi Jinping’s term as Communist Party Secretary of Zhejiang province. The “new
army” refers to people who were closely associated with Xi and identifies with his political
views, and who have since then taken on prominent political posts at the provincial level or in
central party and state organs. The term was first widely used by Ma Haoliang (马浩亮), editor
at Hong Kong-based newspaper Ta Kung Pao in an article entitled the New Zhijiang Army of
Chinese Politics. The term Zhijiang refers to the Qiantang River, which runs through the
province, but is often used as a poetic reference for the greater Zhejiang region. The term was
initially used as title to Xi Jinping's book Zhijiang Xinyu (之江新语), a book compiling the
political philosophies of Xi Jinping during his five-year term as party chief of Zhejiang,
published in 2007. The people close to Xi Jinping have also been referred to as 習家軍 Xí
Jiājūn (“Xi Family Army”).)
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