A retired former Chinese Commerce Ministry official wrote on February 18 that '2022 now
seems likely to be the year of all-out globalisation crisis; it hence may also be the beginning of
rebuilding the global order in the post-epidemic era. 2022 is already very important; a key
factor is that Xi Jinping will use the 20th National Party Congress to break the term limit,
cementing his life-long dictatorship'. He said 'Whether or not he gets his wish, it’s of great
significance to China and the world in future: China's future is hostage to his personal ups and
downs. But given its world position, China’s efforts to rebuild the global order are to a large
extent hostage to it. In other words, Xi's failure to be re-elected would mean a world outlook
completely different to that in which he prolongs his power'. Pointing to the recent 40,000-
character (Chinese) article titled ' Objective Evaluation of Xi Jinping', he said it is important and the 'authors chose the right time and sent an accurate message, so it seems to be pushing
them to try to stop Xi Jinping'. He added that 'If the effect of re-election can continue to ferment,
it also means that the variables in 2022 will increase greatly'. He analysed that 'The long article
'Discussing Xi' chose to publish at this time, and told Party officials in most meaningful terms
that Xi Jinping was doomed to fail and would be very lethal. Its 'objectivity' meant its
exposition of Xi's inevitable defeat could resonate highly with personal experiences of the
entire CCP bureaucracy. This was the authors’ intention. The key to whether Xi Jinping can
continue to be a dictator supported by high tech is not the minds of the people, but of the
officials. Ever more salient In China under Xi Jinping is that the officials, not the people, ‘can’t
make a living. Xi has exhausted the bureaucrats; they now struggle more than ever to make
ends meet. If the article leads them to believe Xi's national governance ideas can no longer
yield 'miracles', but instead more failures and disasters, it wouldn't be out of the question, it
follows, for Xi to lose the '20th National Party Congress' battle; even if he could prolong his
term, official morale would sink further.' He added that were Putin convinced that Xi Jinping
was not going to be re-elected, he is not 'likely to take such a big risk, but if Putin wins Ukraine,
he may fully support Xi's dictatorship, thus greatly delaying change in China. This is another
major variable that the recent situation has brought to 2022'. He commented, in conclusion,
that under the circumstances all eyes are trained on the US and President Biden. He said, 'there
are some who 'are very pessimistic in light of this: after all, Biden is old, not to mention that
US society and politics are seriously divided', but added that 'in historical terms, we should not
be too pessimistic about the challenges facing the US today. Since it became a world hegemonic
power, internal progress in the US has become ever more closely aligned with pressures
brought about by international crisis. This is a basic historical fact. The current serious crisis
in the world order has in fact a lot to do with the US’s international environment becoming 'too
slack' after the Cold War: it was too complacent, too careless. In this sense, the current severe
international situation will, I hope, give it positive impetus to overcome its domestic crisis and
once again play a role in saving the world. Trump once wished Biden good luck, showing that
he understands the truth that 'times makes a hero.'
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