The South China Morning Post (June 4) reported that an analysis of Russia’s military
operations published in Naval and Merchant Ships said, “Ukraine has exploited Russia’s
weaknesses … and successfully forced Russia to change its strategies”. “How this success was
achieved can hardly exclude factors such as NATO and the United States. And it’s not difficult
to imagine that Taiwan would receive guidance, plans, intelligence, experience, and training
[from NATO and the US] too.” It added that Taiwan’s mountainous landscape would make any assault far harder than in Ukraine. “Taiwan’s major transport routes are limited in number
and circle around the island; while roads are like nets in Ukraine cities, offering Russian forces
multiple choices to enter a city. This limits the options to perform surprise attacks, as any
deliberate damage to the major roads would segment Chinese forces into smaller components.”
It said an assault would need to be an integrated option conducted by the navy and air force
aided by logistic support forces. “To be more specific, amphibious forces not only need to
complete the tasks of soldier delivery, landing and support, but also guarantee Chinese forces’
manoeuvring across regions on Taiwan island, forming a comprehensive combat team.”
Another lesson, the article said, was the overwhelmingly unfriendly attitude of the Taiwanese
towards Chinese forces. To deal with this, it suggested keeping Taiwanese forces outside cities,
persuading Taiwanese stay at home and cutting off internet access when necessary. “If the
Taiwanese forces chose to forcefully occupy residential areas … we can use medium and small
size drones to gather intelligence and perform precision strikes”.
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