CHINA-TAIWAN: FORUM CONVENED BY INSTITUTE OF TAIWAN STUDIES OF CASS TO DISCUSS CHINA'S RESPONSES TO PELOSI'S VISIT TO TAIWAN FORECAST TOUGH ACTIONS
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On July 29, the Institute of Taiwan Studies in the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS)
held a forum with analysts and discussed the damage of Pelosi's possible Taiwan island visit
to the China-US relations, cross-Straits stability and regional and global peace, and China's
countermeasures. Yang Mingjie, head of the Institute of Taiwan Studies in Chinese Academy
of Social Sciences, told the Global Times (July 29) that sending fighter jets to intercept Pelosi's
plane, declaring air and maritime zones around the island of Taiwan as restriction zones for
military exercises … China's responses will be systematically and not limited to small scale
given the severity of Pelosi's move and the damage to the political trust of China-US relations.
The Global Times added that the phrase "Don't say we didn't warn you" had also been
frequently mentioned by analysts when talking about the disastrous consequences that may be
brought about by Pelosi during the July 29 forum. It clarified "Don't say we didn't warn you"
has become a key phrase used by Chinese official media as the most severe warning previously
issued before shots were fired in military operations. The phrase has been used several times
before, such as in 1962 and 1978, not long before China's military operations against
provocations by Indian and Vietnamese troops, respectively. Yang Mingjie said "The US
should not underestimate the Chinese people's determination to defend core interests on
sovereignty, integrity and security at any time. It should also not repeat the miscalculation it
made in the 1950s in the Korean War. Despite not being strong at that time, China still had the
courage to fight a war when it was pushed to the corner, it will surely not sit idly by this time".
Analysts said the countermeasures in China's toolbox include concrete and strategic ones and
rapid and long-term ones and it will take different measures in accordance with Pelosi's
interactions with secessionists from the island of Taiwan. If she makes the visit, the possibility
for China to recall the ambassador from the US cannot be ruled out as also imposing sanctions
on individuals related to the visit
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