CHINA-ECONOMY: FORMER CASS VICE PRESIDENT CAI FANG ANTICIPATES CHINA'S NEGATIVE POPULATION GROWTH RATE WILL BRING UNEXPECTED NEW SHOCKS TO THE ECONOMY
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The 21st Century Business Herald reported (July 31) from Qingdao that Cai Fang, former Vice
President of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), chief expert of a national high
end think tank, and member of the Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee, said at the
Qingdao China Fortune Forum on July 30 that according to the new forecast, about this year
or next year, China's population will peak and then enter negative growth, while India's
population will exceed China's, and the gap will be very significant in the future. These data
mean that China will officially enter an era of negative population growth, which is not cyclical,
not fleeting, but almost a long-term trend, and a new demographic turning point may bring new
shocks. Cai Fang pointed out that since 2010, China's labour force began to decline. The
population shock experienced in the past ten years has been on the supply side, resulting in a
decline in the potential economic growth and actual growth rate. He said China responded
through supply-side structural reforms. He said this will "bring unexpected new shocks to
economic growth from the supply side and the demand side" and adversely impact resource
mobilisation.
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