Well known critic of Chinese President Xi Jinping and former senior member of the faculty of
the Central Party School in Beijing, Cai Xia wrote an article (Foreign Affairs, Sept/Oct 2022)
titled 'The Weakness of Xi Jinping -- How Hubris and Paranoia Threaten China’s Future'. She
claimed that "But behind the scenes, his power is being questioned as never before." She
warned "Trapped in an echo chamber and desperately seeking redemption, he may even do
something catastrophically ill advised, such as attack Taiwan. Xi may well ruin something
China has earned over the course of four decades: a reputation for steady, competent leadership.
In fact, he already has." Stating that though Xi Jinping has lost support from all factions, he
has probably been able to frighten his opponents into silence, Cai Xia said: "Xi will no doubt
see his victory as a mandate to do whatever he wants to achieve the party’s stated goal of
rejuvenating China. His ambitions will rise to new heights. In a futile attempt to invigorate the
economy without empowering the private sector, Xi will double down on his statist economic
policies. ... Xi might even try to stay in power well beyond a third term. An emboldened Xi
may well accelerate his militarization of disputed areas of the South China Sea and try to
forcibly take over Taiwan. ... But none of these moves would make discontent within the party
magically disappear." She suggested that "The only viable way of changing course, so far as I
can see, is also the scariest and deadliest: a humiliating defeat in a war. If Xi were to attack
Taiwan, his likeliest target, there is a good chance that the war would not go as planned ... . In
that event, the elites and the masses would abandon Xi, paving the way for not only his personal
downfall but perhaps even the collapse of the CCP as we know it."
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